As expected the euro found resistance near 1.0878, moved towards the downside, reached our first target and exceeded it by 11 pips.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Synopsis: EUR/USD is expected to move down to find near support between 1.0798 and 1.0760, while it remains below 1.0906, and ideally below 1.0855. Price will probably find resistance between 1.0826 and 1.0844.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0906
– Confirmation Point: 1.0798
– Downwards Target: 1.0798 – 1.0760
– Wave number: Micro 5
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th March, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture on this daily chart sees that black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 2 is forming a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.
Pink wave y is forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).
Green wave (a) formed an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
This count expects the euro to continue moving generally towards the upside in pink wave y to complete blue wave 2.
At 1.0878 pink wave y would reach 78.6% the length of pink wave w, then at 1.0983 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1300 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0495 as green wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of green wave (a).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that green wave (b) is now unfolding towards the downside. It may form any corrective pattern, but to take the most logical route, I’ll assume for now that it’s forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Orange wave a is likely forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
It’s very likely that violet waves 1, 2 and 3 are complete. Violet wave 4 should find resistance between 1.0826 and 1.0844.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in violet wave 5 to complete orange waves a. We can’t calculate precise targets for wave 5 until wave 4 is complete, so we’ll rely on the most logical support levels.
At 1.0798 violet wave 5 would reach the low of violet wave 3, then at 1.0760 it would reach the low of orange wave iv of the previous wave at one larger degree.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0855 as violet wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of violet wave 1. This wouldn’t invalidate the entire count, but it could at least mean that orange wave a is forming an expanding leading diagonal, which is a rare formation.