I’d like to begin this week’s analysis by stating the obvious: this market is a mess, and it has been for the better part of the month.
I’ve already shared my thought process in our previous analyses, so I’ll just recap what happened since then. What I expected to be a leading diagonal (as the first leg of another upwards correction) should now be complete. It was followed by what looks like a small zigzag, and then the market advanced slowly in what looks like another zigzag.
This suggests to me that a flat correction is forming after the completion of the diagonal. None of the price movements looks regular enough to give me a strong measure of confidence in this count, but it is the one that makes the most sense to me right now. It fits the momentum and volume readings of this recent period, and it accounts for the the choppy bounces of price.
One particular downside of this labeling is that it makes it impossible to place an invalidation point, since this flat can easily turn into an expanded flat and make a new “false” high.
The best course of action right now is to closely monitor the market and wait for at least one solid signal that would make things clear up. Until then that happens, all we can do is to follow the market as it unfolds and try to label its movements in the way that makes the most sense.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Synopsis: By moving below 1.0756, EUR/USD is expected to move down to find near-term support between 1.0722 and 1.0688.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: –
– Confirmation Point: 1.0756
– Downwards Target: 1.0722 – 1.0688
– Wave number: Micro C
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 17th March, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture on this daily chart sees that black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Blue wave 2 is forming a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.
Pink wave y is forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).
This count expects the euro to eventually move towards the upside in green wave (c) to complete pink wave y. This will be finally confirmed by movement above 1.0829.
At 1.0796 pink wave y would reach 61.8% the length of pink wave w, then at 1.0983 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0300 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1, and it’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0495 as green wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of green wave (a).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that green wave (a) formed a leading diagonal labeled orange waves i through v.
Orange wave v formed an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Violet wave 5 formed an impulse labeled aqua waves (1) through (5).
From there, green wave (b) seems to be forming either a flat or a more complex correction labeled orange waves a, b and c.
Orange wave a seems to be forming a flat labeled violet waves A, B and C.
Violet waves A and B each formed a zigzag labeled aqua waves (A), (B) and (C).
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in violet wave C to complete wave A. This will be tentatively confirmed by movement below 1.0756.
At 1.0722 violet wave C would reach 100% the length of violet wave A, then at 1.0688 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
It’s impossible to place an invalidation point on this count in its current stage, since this flat can easily turn into an expanded flat and make a new “false” high.