Archives for March 2017

For the most part, the market moved precisely as expected. Price tested the 1.0702 level (only 2 pips below the resistance line we stated) and then it pushed down to make a new low. So far the market has come 10 pips short of reaching our first target. But it's important to note that there's a clear bullish momentum divergence at this point, and price almost touched the lower trend line of the channel drawn around the most recent impulse wave. This doesn't necessarily mean the market has formed a bottom. However, all the conditions are now in place for us to start shifting our attention towards an upward correction in the very near future -- perhaps even immediately. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro moved towards the downside and reached both of our targets, but instead of forming a temporary bottom near those targets, it continued nearly 50 pips further down. On the daily chart, the decline from 1.0906 looks both quantitatively and qualitatively stronger than anything we've seen since the low of 1.0340 which was formed in early January. It may in fact be the beginning of a new downtrend (which I'm presenting as a new alternate count). However, since this count will behave exactly like the current main count over the next few weeks, I see no need to change our larger perspective until the price itself confirms one over the other. I'd also like to mention that, even though the price action looks clear enough on the daily count, the hourly action is nowhere near that level of clarity. The hourly count is technically correct, but I must admit it's visually jarring. I have to assume that the low-degree downtrend is still going, since I see no clear sign of its nearing completion, especially on a larger time frame. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro found resistance near 1.0826, moved towards the downside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded the second target by 20 pips. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro found resistance near 1.0878, moved towards the downside, reached our first target and exceeded it by 11 pips. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, passed our first target, and reached our second target exactly to the pip. Immediately after reaching that point, the market rejected any further advance and began to push the price down, leading to the formation of a near-textbook shooting star candlestick on the daily chart -- a common bearish reversal pattern. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More