The market moved pretty much as expected — first making a 50% corrective pullback, and then continuing upwards to make a new high.
I’m also including a new alternate daily count that examines the possibility that the market has already resumed its downtrend. This count will come into effect if the main hourly count gets invalidated at any point.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Synopsis: By default, EURUSD is expected to move towards the upside to find resistance between 1.0675 and 1.0711. It should remain above 1.0493, and ideally above 1.0537.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0493
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target: 1.0675 – 1.0711
– Wave number: Minuette (c)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 23rd February, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that black wave (C) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Within it, blue wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled pink waves i through v.
Blue wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c, retracing 50% of blue wave 1.
Blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in blue wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0340.
At 0.9869 blue wave 3 would reach 100% the length of blue wave 1, then at 0.9276 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0829 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main hourly count sees that pink wave ii is likely forming an expanded flat labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).
Green waves (a) and (b) each formed a double zigzag labeled orange waves w, x and y.
Green wave (b) retraced green wave (a) by 114%. Within it, orange wave y reached exactly 161.8% the length of orange wave w, and within that, violet wave C reached slightly over 61.8% the length of violet wave A.
Green wave (c) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Orange wave i formed an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Orange wave ii formed a zigzag labeled violet waves A, B and C, retracing about 50% of orange wave i.
Orange wave iii is forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in green wave (c) to complete pink wave ii. This has already been largely confirmed by movement above 1.0556.
At 1.0675 pink wave ii would retrace 50% of pink wave i, then at 1.0711 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0493 as orange wave ii may not move beyond the start of orange wave i.
Alternate Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture in this count sees that black wave (C) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Within it, blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Pink wave ii retraced 50% of pink wave i.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in pink wave iii.
At 1.0812 pink wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of pink wave i, then at 0.9874 it would reach 261.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0679.