EURUSD 30th January, 2017

As expected the euro moved towards the downside, reached our first target, and exceeded it by 37 pips.

However, price immediately and strongly rebounded towards the upside from there. This again puts us in a somewhat ambiguous situation. The main count now sees an uncommon – but perfectly valid – formation, whereas the alternate count remains the same.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Synopsis: By default, EURUSD would be expected to find resistance between 1.0716 and 1.0742. During this period, the market should move neither above 1.0775 nor below 1.0620.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0775 – 1.0620
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target: 1.0716 – 1.0742
– Wave number: Minuette (ii)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 30th January, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that black wave (C) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Within it, blue wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled pink waves i through v.

Blue wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c.

Blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in blue wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0340.

At 0.9815 blue wave 3 would reach 100% the length of blue wave 1, then at 0.9222 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0775 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main hourly count sees that pink wave i is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

Within it, green wave (i) formed an expanding leading diagonal labeled orange waves i through v.

Within it, orange wave v ended exactly at the trend line connecting the ends of oranges waves i and iii.

Green wave (ii) is likely forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c. It should turn out to be a deep correction, as is customary after a diagonal.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in green wave (ii).

At 1.0716 green wave (ii) would retrace 61.8% of green wave (i), then at 1.0742 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0775 as green wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of green wave (i). It is also invalidated by movement below 1.0620 as orange wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of orange wave a.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate count sees that black wave (C) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Within it, blue wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled pink waves i through v.

Blue wave 2 is forming a triple zigzag labeled pink waves w, y and z.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in blue wave 2. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0775.

At 1.0820 blue wave 2 would retrace 50% of blue wave 1, then at 1.0933 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1300 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1.

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