Archives for January 2017

EURUSD 31st January, 2017

31 January, 2017 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

Even though the market moved towards the upside as expected and reached both of our targets, the rally was strong enough to break above our invalidation point, therefore confirming our alternate count in the process. Price is now only a few pips away of reaching the first target of our current main (previous alternate) count. Whether the market will continue on its rally towards our second target is not clear at this point, since the developing pattern can easily go either way. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD: Painting Cable Red!

31 January, 2017 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

On our previous analysis, main count warned of a bear trap and that Cable would reverse directions and unfold upwards. Cable unfolded as expected and upwards targets were reached and exceeded.

This week`s main count expects that Cable`s upwards correction is highly likely complete and that Cable is about to resume its downtrend within a third wave.

As illustrated in Prechter and Frost book “Elliott Wave Principle”, a third wave is a wonder to behold, violent in nature and commonly travel fast in short periods of time.

On the other hand, the alternate count -presented on a daily chart- expects that wave (4) black of intermediate degree has more to offer upwards before reversing directions within wave (5) black.

As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.2674
– Confirmation Point: 1.2447
– Downwards Targets: 1.2447 — 1.2396 — 1.2351
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4566 — 1.1985
– Confirmation Point: 1.2674
– Upwards Targets: 1.2722 — 1.2905 — 1.3109
– Wave number: c pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 30th January, 2017. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

N.B.: This count is presented on the 8-hours bar chart for clarification purposes.

This count expects that within wave C maroon waves (1) through (4) black are complete and that intermediate wave (5) black is unfolding downwards.

Wave (4) black is likely complete as a triple zigzag correction labeled waves W, X, X, Y and Z blue.

The second wave X blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave Z blue unfolded as zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave b pink unfolded as a triangle labeled waves (a) through (e) green.

Wave c pink unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

This count expects that within wave (5) black wave 1 blue is complete and that wave 2 blue is underway.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled i through v pink.

Wave ii pink unfolded as an expanded flat correction labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green with wave (c) green unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green with wave (v) green unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave iv pink followed as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave v pink unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green with wave (v) green being a truncated fifth wave.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag correction labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave c pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Within wave 3 blue, wave i pink is unfolding downwards likely as an impulse with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.

It would be confirmed that wave (iii) green is unfolding downwards by movement below 1.2466.

At 1.2447 wave (iii) green would reach equality with wave (i) green and at 1.2396 wave (iii) green would reach 1.382 of wave (i) green and finally at 1.2351 wave (iii) green would reach 1.618 of wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.2602 as within wave (iii) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Alternate Wave Count

N.B.: This count is presented on the 6-hours bar chart for clarification purposes.

The alternate daily count expects that wave (4) black is incomplete and that it has more to offer towards the upside.

Wave (4) black is seen unfolding as a flat correction labeled waves A, B and C blue with waves A and B blue complete and wave C blue is unfolding upwards.

Wave A blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink unfolding as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave B blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

This count expects that wave c pink is unfolding upwards as a five wave structure to complete wave (4) black.

Within wave c pink, it is likely that waves i through iv pink are complete and that wave v pink is at it early stages.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.2674.

At 1.2722 wave v pink would reach 0.618 of wave iii pink and at 1.2905 wave (4) black would reach 0.236 of wave (3) black and at 1.3109 wave C blue would reach 1.382 of wave A blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4566 as wave (4) black may not enter the price territory of wave (1) black and as well, this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.1985 as within wave C blue no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave. It should be noted that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave iv pink once we have confirmation on the daily chart that wave v pink is unfolding upwards.

GBPUSD 30th January, 2017

31 January, 2017 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable unfolded downwards confirming the main hourly count and targets are yet to be reached. We are updating the main count according to the latest price action with tight invalidation and confirmation points. Main hourly count expects Cable to continue unfolding downwards while the alternate daily count expects Cable to reverse directions and unfold upwards to complete the third leg within a sideways correction. As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 30th January, 2017

30 January, 2017 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

As expected the euro moved towards the downside, reached our first target, and exceeded it by 37 pips. However, price immediately and strongly rebounded towards the upside from there. This again puts us in a somewhat ambiguous situation. The main count now sees an uncommon - but perfectly valid - formation, whereas the alternate count remains the same. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD 27th January, 2017

30 January, 2017 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable unfolded inline with the main count`s view and and in today`s analysis we will be updating the main hourly count which expects that an upwards correction is structurally mature with short term targets, invalidation and confirmation points. The alternate daily count continues to expect Cable to unfold upwards to complete the third leg within a sideways correction as we will soon discuss. As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD: Get Ready to (C)rumble

29 January, 2017 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

The Euro started the new year by attempting to recover some of the 1,000 pips it had lost in the previous two months. And yet, after four weeks of persistence and perseverance, it has managed to recover only a little less than 50% of its losses over that period.

Not only has this rally been weak and choppy, it’s not even carried very well by momentum, which seems to be steadily waning. None of that is a particularly good sign for the Euro.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0775
– Confirmation Point: 1.0340
– Downwards Target: 0.9815 – 0.9222
– Wave number: Minor 3
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Weekly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1300
– Confirmation Point: 1.0775
– Upwards Target: 1.0820 – 1.0933
– Wave number: Minor 2
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Triple Zigzag

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Weekly Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in teal wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled maroon waves W, X and Y.

Maroon wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).

Black wave (A) formed an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Black wave (B) formed a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E, retracing 23.6% of black wave (A).

Main Daily Chart Wave Count

This main count sees that black wave (C) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Within it, blue wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled pink waves i through v.

Blue wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c.

Blue wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in blue wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0340.

At 0.9815 blue wave 3 would reach 100% the length of blue wave 1, then at 0.9222 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0775 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.

Alternate Daily Chart Wave Count

This alternate count sees that black wave (C) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Within it, blue wave 1 formed a leading diagonal labeled pink waves i through v.

Blue wave 2 is forming a triple zigzag labeled pink waves w, y and z.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in blue wave 2. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0775.

At 1.0820 blue wave 2 would retrace 50% of blue wave 1, then at 1.0933 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1300 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1.

EURUSD 27th January, 2017

29 January, 2017 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

Instead of making a new low, the market went down just barely to test the previous low, and then rebounded upwards for about 65 pips. This move looks ambiguous, even on the hourly chart, as it can be counted equally as an impulse with a truncated fifth wave and as a zigzag. This is why we're introducing an alternate count that follows the possibility of another limited rally. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD 26th January, 2017

27 January, 2017 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable made a final push upwards before reversing directions ending the day below where it started. We are updating the main hourly count which expects that an upwards correction is structurally mature and explores the mid/long term probable trend. On the other hand, the alternate daily count expects Cable to continue unfolding upwards to complete the third leg within a sideways correction as we will soon discuss. As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 26th January, 2017

26 January, 2017 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

Instead of making one final (and humble) price high as expected, the euro dropped over a total of 100 pips in 15 hours. This could very well be the first step of the downtrend we've been warning about for quite a while now. We still need to see some solid price confirmation first, but there are several reasons to start planning for it right away. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD 25th January, 2017

26 January, 2017 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable unfolded upwards as expected under the main count and targets were reached and exceeded. The nature of the recent upwards movement suggests that upwards correction is structurally mature, however, we need evidence to support these suggestions to anticipate that a top is in place and that trend reversal is just around the corner. Today we are adding an alternate daily chart which expects that wave (4) black is incomplete and that it has more to offer upwards as we will soon discuss. As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

Archives for January 2017

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