As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached our first target, and so far has come 29 pips short of reaching our second target.
Mondays usually don’t see that much of decisive movements, so it’s more likely that past week’s momentum will carry the market in the same direction for the day. But there’s another possibility, although with lower odds, that this recent high will form a temporary top, which is what our alternate count covers today.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points whenever possible.
By movement above 1.0686 EURUSD would be expected to find resistance between 1.0726 and 1.0760, while it remains above 1.0630. But by movement below 1.0630 EURUSD would be expected to find support between 1.0602 and 1.0582, while it remains above 1.0518.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0630
– Confirmation Point: 1.0686
– Upwards Target: 1.0726 – 1.0760
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0518
– Confirmation Point: 1.0630
– Downwards Target: 1.0602 – 1.0582
– Wave number: Minute b
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th November, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that black wave (C) is likely forming an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in black wave (C). This is already the default count, and it requires no further confirmation at this point.
At 0.9117 black wave (C) would reach 61.8% the length of black wave (A), then at 0.7768 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1300 as blue wave 2 may not move beyond the start of blue wave 1.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that blue wave 2 is likely forming a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c.
Within it, pink wave a is likely forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Within it, green wave (iii) is forming an extension labeled orange waves i through v.
Within it, orange wave iii is forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Within it, violet wave 3 reached 200% the length of violet wave 1.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in violet wave 5 to complete orange wave iii. This will be largely confirmed by movement above 1.0686.
At 1.0726 orange wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of orange wave i, then at 1.0760 it would reach 200% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0630 as violet wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of violet wave 1.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This alternate count sees that pink wave a formed a leading diagonal labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Within it, green waves (i) and (iii) each formed an impulse, whereas green wave (v) formed a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c. Obviously, this kind of inconsistent subdivision is only acceptable in a diagonal.
This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in pink wave b. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0630.
At 1.0602 pink wave b would retrace 50% of pink wave a, then at 1.0582 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0518 as pink wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of pink wave a.