EURUSD 31st October, 2016

Sometimes the market goes through days where no significant action happens at all, producing a situation where prices move a little bit in one direction, only to retrace that the entire movement by the end of the day, so that the market ends up exactly where it had started. Today was pretty much one of those days.

The market reached no significant confirmation level, broke no invalidation point, and formed no new pattern. In other words, we have just about nothing to add to yesterday’s count, other than a slight bit of detail to the subdivisions of the main count. That aside, both our counts remain exactly the same.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action.

By movement below 1.0882 EURUSD would be expected to find support between 1.0851 and 1.0753, while it remains below 1.0995. But by movement above 1.0995 EURUSD would be expected to find resistance between 1.1055 and 1.1101, while it remains above 1.0882 and below 1.1153.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0995
– Confirmation Point: 1.0882
– Downwards Target: 1.0851 – 1.0753
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0882 – 1.1153
– Confirmation Point: 1.0995
– Upwards Target: 1.1055 – 1.1101
– Wave number: Micro Z
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Triangle

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 31st October, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving sideways in black wave (B), which is forming a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E.

Within it, blue wave D is forming a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.

Within it, pink wave y is forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, green wave (c) is forming an impulse, reaching over 161.8% the length of green wave (a), and it should be very near completion.

Price is likely to hit a bottom between 1.0813 and 1.0662. At 1.0813 pink wave y would reach 78.6% the length of pink wave w, then at 1.0662 it would reach 100% of its length.

Blue wave E will likely form a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c.

This count expects the euro very soon to move towards the upside in blue wave E to complete black wave (B).

At 1.1295 black wave (B) would retrace 23.6% of black wave (A).

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as blue wave E in this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of blue wave D. It is also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as blue wave D may not move beyond the start of blue wave C.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that green wave (c) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

Within it, orange wave iii formed an extension labeled violet waves 1 through 5 and reached 423.6% the length of orange wave i.

Orange wave iv formed a double combination labeled violet waves W, X and Y, retracing nearly 38.2% of orange wave iii.

Within it, violet wave W formed a flat labeled aqua waves (A), (B) and (C).

Violet wave Y formed a zigzag labeled aqua waves (A), (B) and (C), reaching a little over 100% the length of violet wave W, and it’s most likely complete.

Orange wave v is likely forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.

Within it, violet wave 2 retraced exactly 78.6% of violet wave 1.

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in orange wave v to complete green wave (c), and therefore pink wave y, and therefore blue wave D. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0882 (although this count will gain a slight advantage by movement below 1.0936).

At 1.0851 orange wave v would reach 161.8% the length of orange wave i, then at 1.0753 it would reach 61.8% the length of orange wave iii.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0995 as violet wave 2 may move beyond the start of violet wave 1.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that orange wave iv is forming a triple combination labeled violet waves W through Z.

Within it, the second violet wave X retraced just over 50% of violet wave Y. It’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in violet wave Z to complete orange wave iv. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0995.

At 1.1055 orange wave iv would retrace 50% of orange wave iii, then at 1.1101 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0882 as the second violet wave X of this triple combination is extremely unlikely to move beyond the start of violet wave Y. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.1153 as orange wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of orange wave ii.

2 thoughts on “EURUSD 31st October, 2016”

  1. Hi Tamer, I’m a bit confused on the counts:

    Hourly Main – wave (1) violet
    (I suppose this would be a 5-wave)
    Hourly Alt – wave (x) violet
    (I suppose this would be a 3-wave)

    So how can a “5” wave become a “3” wave?

    Or might you be looking at a wave (1) violet that should be the start of a descending triangle, allowing for 3-3-3-3-3 waves?


    1. Hi John,

      I won’t lie to you, this really is one of the most confusing (and maddeningly frustrating) aspects of EW, so let me take a minute to explain how I arrived at these two conflicting counts…

      Sometimes it’s a challenge to be sure of how many waves there actually are in one movement. Here for example, I could count a suitable zigzag (5-3-5) in that recent decline, but I could also count a lower-probability impulse. It was a lower-probability count because it involved stretching the guidelines very, very thin.

      Of course, this cannot involve breaking a “rule,” not a guideline. And sometimes, the market ignores the higher probability and prefers to follow a different path.

      In general, even if the market keeps breaking guidelines for a period of time, there comes a moment when it hits up against a hard rule, and so the picture becomes much clearer.

      Sometimes, however, things become even more confusing. As you’ll see in today’s analysis (which I’m editing right now), even though the invalidation of the main count should lead automatically to the alternate count, the nature of the recent rally makes it now more probable that a completely different count should be in effect.

      Please take a look at today’s analysis and let me know what you think. I really do appreciate your views and feedback, plus I benefit a lot from having a pair of watchful eyes 🙂

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