As expected the euro moved towards the downside, reached our first target, and exceeded it by 8 pips, before immediately reversing in a sudden rally to almost test the previous short-term high.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
EURUSD is expected to find support between 1.1178 and 1.1164, while remaining above 1.1135.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1135
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target: 1.1178 – 1.1164
– Wave number: Submicro (4)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 21st September, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving sideways in black wave (B), which is forming a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E.
Within it, blue wave D is unfolding as a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.
Within it, pink wave y is forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).
Within it, green wave (b) is most likely forming a flat labeled orange waves a, b and c.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in pink wave y over the next couple of weeks.
At 1.0931 pink wave y would reach 61.8% the length of pink wave w, then at 1.0662 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1366 as green wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of green wave (a).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that orange wave b is complete and that orange wave c is unfolding towards the upside.
Orange wave bformed a double zigzag labeled violet waves W, X and Y.
Within it, violet wave Y formed a zigzag labeled aqua waves (A), (B) and (C).
Within it, aqua wave (A) formed an impulse labeled red waves 1 through 5.
Aqua wave (B) formed a zigzag labeled red waves A, B and C, retracing just short of 50% of aqua wave (A).
Aqua wave (C) formed an impulse labeled red waves 1 through 5.
Orange wave c is forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Within it, violet wave 1 is likely forming a leading diagonal labeled aqua waves (1) through (5). This may seem like a strange labeling on the hourly chart, but its details become much clearer on a 15- or 5-minute chart (which is beyond the scope of this medium-degree analysis).
Within it, aqua waves (1), (2) and (3) are complete.
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in aqua wave (4).
At 1.1178 aqua wave (4) would reach 38.2% the length of aqua wave (2), then at 1.1164 it would reach 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1123 as aqua wave (4) may not move beyond the start of aqua wave (3).
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This alternate daily count sees that pink wave x is forming a flat labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).
Within it, green waves (a) formed a double zigzag labeled orange waves w, x and y.
Green wave (b) is likely forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c. It should go all the way down to retrace at least 90% of green wave (a).
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in pink wave x.
At 1.1348 pink wave x would retrace 61.8% of pink wave w, then at 1.1466 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as pink wave x of a double zigzag may not move beyond the start of pink wave w.