Archives for September 2016
On our previous analysis the main count expected Cable to unfold downwards and Cable unfolded as expected reaching and exceeding the specified targets.
In today`s analysis, we will be focusing on the mid to long term view and we should keep in mind that at this stage, both counts have almost equal probabilities and therefore instead of referring to both counts as main and alternate counts. We will be discussing bearish and bullish counts.
The bearish count expects Cable to unfold downwards as an impulse within a third wave.
On the other hand, the bullish count expects Cable to unfold upwards within a C wave to complete a second wave correction.
As always, we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
– Invalidation Point: 1.3446
– Confirmation Point: 1.2865 — 1.2794
– Downwards Targets: 1.2607
– Wave number: iii pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُImpulse
– Invalidation Point: 1.5020 — 1.2794
– Confirmation Point: 1.3481
– Upwards Targets: 1.3553
– Wave number: ii pink
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: ُZigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 29th September, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Bearish Wave Count
For the long term, this count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.
This count is considered a very bearish count, review the Food For Thought section below which briefly discusses a more conservative bearish count.
Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black are complete and intermediate wave (3) black is unfolding downwards.
Intermediate wave (2) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.
Within intermediate wave (3) black it is expected that minor waves 1 and 2 blue are complete and that wave 3 blue has started unfolding downwards.
Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.
Wave i pink unfolded as a leading diagonal labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
Wave (i) green unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y orange.
Wave (ii) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Wave iii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Wave v pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.
Minor wave 2 blue unfolded upwards likely as a double zigzag correction labeled waves w, x and y pink.
Wave w pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.
Wave x pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.
Within minor wave 3 blue, this count expects that waves i and ii pink are complete and that wave iii pink has started unfolding downwards.
Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.
This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.2865 and the final confirmation point is at 1.2794.
A very initial target is at 1.2607 as at that level wave iii pink would reach 0.382 of wave i pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3446 as within wave iii pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Bullish Wave Count
This count expects that wave ii pink is incomplete and that it has more to offer towards the upside.
Wave ii pink is seen unfolding as a zigzag correction labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green with waves (a) and (b) green complete and wave (c) green is unfolding upwards.
Within wave ii pink, wave (c) green is unfolding upwards as an ending diagonal with waves i and ii orange complete and wave iii orange is underway.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.3481.
At 1.3553 wave (c) green would reach equality with wave (a) green.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5020 as wave ii pink may not retrace more than 100 % of wave i pink and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2794 as within wave ii pink no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave. It is worth noting that invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave (b) green once we have confirmation on the daily chart that wave (c) green is underway.
This alternate count has been on the back burner for a while but since an astute member brought this count up, we feel it is necessary to discuss this count`s probabilities in case the count has been lurking in other members` minds.
The only reason this count is considered of slightly lower probabilities is because of the time relationships between waves 2 and 4 blue.
Wave 2 blue took 83 days to reach completion while -so far- wave 4 blue has been unfolding for 61 days.
As we are all aware, triangles consume time and therefore, this count`s probabilities would gradually increase as time unfolds with Cable locked in its consolidation, preferably for wave 4 blue to approach/reach equality (time-wise) with wave 2 blue.