EURUSD 30th August, 2016

As expected the euro moved towards the downside and passed our confirmation point, although it hasn’t yet reached our targets.

Considering the sloping look of this decline, I must say the pattern doesn’t look as impulsive as I had hoped it’d turn out, and it’s very difficult to count it in 5 waves (although it’s technically possible). Momentum is also steadily rising, which isn’t something you want to see in a third wave down. At the same time, the current main count has merits when considering the larger degree wave structure, so I don’t want to discount it prematurely.

In short, we’re going to follow the main count for a few more days with a very critical eye. At the first sign of invalidation, we’ll immediately switch to the alternate count, which suggests a corrective structure is unfolding.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Note: I apologize for my delay in publishing today’s count, as I’ve been struggling with a moderate fever and under heavy medications.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1341 – 1.1193
– Confirmation Point: 1.1162 – 1.1193
– Upwards Target: 1.1210 – 1.1260
– Wave number: Micro 2
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 30th August, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving sideways in black wave (B), which is forming a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E.

Within it, blue wave D is unfolding as a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.

Within it, pink wave x formed a double zigzag labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y).

Pink wave y is forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, green wave (a) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in pink wave y to complete blue wave D.

At 1.0931 pink wave y would reach 61.8% the length of pink wave w, then at 1.0662 it would reach 100% the length of blue wave B.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1366 as orange wave ii may not move beyond the start of orange wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as blue wave D of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of blue wave C.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that green wave (a) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

Within it, orange wave i formed a leading diagonal labeled violet waves 1 through 5.

Orange wave ii was very swift and brief, retracing exactly 78.6% of orange wave i.

Orange wave iii is forming an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.

Within it, violet wave 1 most likely formed a leading diagonal labeled aqua waves (1) through (5). This diagonal doesn’t have the perfect look, but it fits the wave relationships of a diagonal in that the third wave is shorter than the first, the fourth shorter than the second, and the fifth shorter than the third.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in violet wave 2. This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.1162, and it will be finally confirmed by movement above 1.1193.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a consistent series of bullish divergences, where price keeps making lower lows and momentum steadily makes higher lows.

At 1.1210 violet wave 2 would retrace 38.2% of violet wave 1, then at 1.1260 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1341 as violet wave 2 may not move beyond the start of violet wave 1.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate count sees that pink wave x is forming a triple zigzag labeled green waves (w) through (z).

Within it, green waves (w), first (x), and (y) are complete, and the second green wave (x) may or may not be complete.

This count expects the euro soon to move towards the upside in green wave (z) to complete pink wave x. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1366.

At 1.1366 green wave (z) would reach the high of green wave (y), then at 1.1466 pink wave x would retrace 78.6% of pink wave w.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as pink wave x of a double zigzag may not move beyond the start of pink wave w. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0952 as it’s virtually unheard of for a second green wave (x) to move beyond the end of the first green wave (x) in a triple zigzag.

4 thoughts on “EURUSD 30th August, 2016”

  1. Ideally, this proposal expects one more low under 1129, then a rise to break 1150 towards 1210/1235 area. The purple channel line should be good resistance. It’s a very simple setup.

    1. It is indeed a simpler, and even more elegant count, Neugo. Two thumbs up 🙂

      But even though I wanted to adopt this count (and still do, to be honest), there are two reasons I had to leave it as a last resort…

      1. The time relationships between the waves of different degrees are really awkward,

      2. If this is indeed a third wave (as both you and I agree), this is not at all the typical way for it unfold.

      Of course, neither of the above points makes this an invalid count. In fact, if we see enough evidence later on, this will definitely be my primary option.

      And thank you very much for the well wishes. I’m beginning to get much better now 🙂

      1. TY!

        I think this is 1 of 5 of 3 I illustrate. In 2 currently, one more push to 75 to make ‘a’ complete, then b of 30 pip fall, then c to go very high I think on Fri then fall for 3 of 5 of 3. Over 1240 confirms my extension to a huge fall coming. Typical NFP behaviour.

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