GBPUSD: Upwards correction Vs. Downwards Movement

In our previous analysis Cable unfolded as expected inline with the main count and first target was reached and exceeded.
As always we will be approaching Cable`s analysis systematically one step at a time. We will be setting specific points -confirmation points- that when reached, a certain count`s probabilities increases and we follow that count.

Therefore, we are updating the main count according to the latest price action and as well adding two alternate counts.

The first alternate count expects that downwards correction has one more low to offer before reversing directions and moving upwards.

The second alternate count expects that upwards correction is complete and that a downwards motive wave is underway.

For further clarifications, please watch the video analysis below.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.2794 — 1.5020
– Confirmation Point: 1.3481
– Upwards Targets: 1.3491 — 1.3643 — 1.3753
– Wave number: ii pink
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: ُZigzag

First Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.2794 — 1.5020
– Confirmation Point: 1.2851 — 1.2794
– Downwards Target: 1.2640 — 1.2316
– Wave number: iii pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُImpulse

Second Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3481 — 1.2794
– Confirmation Point: 1.4071
– Downwards Targets: 1.3022 — 1.2950 — 1.2946
– Wave number: (b) green
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: ُZigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 25th July, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on the 6-hours bar chart for clarification purposes.

This count expects that wave C maroon of primary degree has started unfolding downwards with waves (1) and (2) black complete and wave (3) black is unfolding downwards.

Wave (1) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue with wave 3 blue unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave (2) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Within wave (3) black, waves 1 and 2 blue are complete and wave 3 blue is unfolding downwards as an impulse.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink.

within wave 3 blue, the main count expects that wave i pink is complete and that wave ii pink is unfolding upwards as a zigzag correction labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green with waves (a) and (b) green complete and wave (c) green is unfolding upwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.3481.

At 1.3491 wave (c) green would reach 0.618 of wave (a) green and at 1.3643 wave ii pink would reach 0.382 of wave i pink and finally at 1.3753 wave (c) green would reach equality with wave (a) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5020 as wave ii pink may not retrace more than 100 % of wave i pink and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2794 as within wave ii pink wave (b) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (a) green.

First Alternate Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on the 6-hours bar chart for clarification purposes.

The first alternate count expects that wave (b) green has more to offer downwards before reversing directions and moving upwards within wave (c) green.

Within wave (b) green it is expected that waves a and b orange are complete and that wave c orange has started unfolding downwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.3071.

At 1.3022 wave c orange would reach 0.786 of wave a orange and we have a target zone that starts at 1.2950 as at that level wave (b) green would reach 0.786 of wave (a) green and the target zone ends at 1.3946 as at that level wave c orange would reach equality with wave a orange.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3481 as wave b orange within wave (b) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave a orange as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.2794 as within wave ii pink wave (b) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (a) green.

Second Alternate Wave Count

The difference between both main and second alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave ii pink as this count expects that wave ii pink is complete and that wave iii pink is at its very early stages. It should be noted that this count is considered an alternate count as it does not provide the best fit.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave iii pink waves (i) and (ii) green are likely complete and wave (iii) green is unfolding downwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.2794.

At 1.2748 wave (iii) green would reach 1.618 of wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.3481 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green and it is worth noting that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave (ii) green once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave (iii) green is unfolding downwards.

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