EURUSD 28th July, 2016

We had expected to see a day of sideways consolidation before the market resumes its low-degree upwards movement, but instead the market rallied a bit and then spent the rest of the day retracing almost all of that small rally.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1030
– Confirmation Point: 1.1068
– Downwards Target: 1.1059 – 1.1040
– Wave number: Subminuette iv
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Triangle

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1068
– Confirmation Point: 1.1119
– Upwards Target: 1.1147 – 1.1195
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th July, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in teal wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled maroon waves W, X and Y.

Maroon wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).

Black wave (B) is forming a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E.

Within it, blue wave D formed a zigzag labeled pink waves a, b and c, retracing 61.8% of blue wave C and reaching 61.8% the length of blue wave B.

Blue wave E is forming a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.

Within it, pink wave x formed a double zigzag labeled green waves (w), (x) and (y), retracing over 78.6% of pink wave w.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in pink wave y to complete blue wave E of black wave (B).

At 1.1121 pink wave y would reach 61.8% the length of pink wave w, then at 1.1226 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as blue wave E of a contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of blue wave D. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0913 as pink wave x of a double zigzag may not move beyond the start of pink wave w.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that pink wave y is forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, green wave (a) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

Within it, orange wave i formed a leading diagonal labeled violet waves 1 through 5.

Orange wave ii formed a double zigzag labeled violet waves W, X and Y, retracing well over 78.6% of orange wave i.

Orange wave iii reached twice the length of orange wave i, and it’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to move sideways in orange wave iv. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1068.

At 1.1059 orange wave iv would retrace 38.2% of orange wave iii, then at 1.1040 it would retrace 50% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1030 as orange wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of orange wave i.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that orange wave iv formed a zigzag labeled violet waves A, B and C, retracing slightly less than 38.2% of orange wave iii.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in orange wave v. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1119.

At 1.1147 orange wave v would reach 100% the length of orange wave i, then at 1.1195 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1068 as this is the assumed start of orange wave v.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that blue wave D is forming a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.

Within it, pink wave w formed a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

Pink wave x is forming a flat labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in green wave (b). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0913.

At 1.0913 green wave (b) would retrace 100% of green wave (a), then at 1.0838 it would retrace 127.2% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as pink wave x of a double zigzag may not move beyond the start of pink wave w.

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