GBPUSD: Cable`s Long Term View –Continued

In our previous analysis almost two weeks ago, we anticipated a bearish reversal and we even mentioned how the main count is “an extremely bearish count”.

It was one of the rare moments providing two counts pointing at the same direction “bearish”.

After publishing that last weekly analysis, Cable continued its upwards drifting before sharply reversing directions and losing over 1700 pips in one single day.

This week, we will continue analyzing and labeling the weekly charts to identify the latest wave counts and we should keep in mind that -at this stage- the alternate count`s confirmation point placement does not provide us with a short term opportunity.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5020
– Confirmation Point: 1.3120
– Downwards Targets: 1.2925
– Wave number: 3 blue
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُImpulse

Alternate Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.3120
– Confirmation Point: 1.5020
– Upwards Targets: —
– Wave number: 1 maroon
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: ُImpulse/Leading diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 29th June, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on the weekly bar chart for clarification purposes.

This count expects that wave C maroon of primary degree has started unfolding downwards with waves (1) and (2) black complete and wave (3) black is unfolding downwards.

Wave (1) black unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 blue with wave 3 blue unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave (2) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Within wave (3) black, waves 1 and 2 blue are complete and wave 3 blue is unfolding downwards as an impulse.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.3120.

At 1.2925 wave 3 blue would reach equality with wave 1 blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5020 as within wave 3 blue no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Alternate Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on the weekly bar chart for clarification purposes.

The difference between both main and alternate counts is in the nature of wave C maroon of primary degree.

The main count suggested that wave C maroon is unfolding downwards as an impulse, while the alternate count expects that wave C maroon is complete and that wave C maroon unfolded downwards as an ending diagonal.

Wave C maroon unfolded as an ending diagonal labeled waves (1) through (5) black.

Wave (1) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue with wave A blue unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave (2) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave (3) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue with wave A blue unfolding as a leading diagonal and wave C blue unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave (4) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue with wave B blue unfolding as a double combination labeled waves w, x and y pink.

It would be initially confirmed that wave 1 maroon of primary degree is unfolding upwards by movement above 1.5020.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.3120 as within wave 1 maroon no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

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