EURUSD 27th June, 2016

The market saw very little change as the new week started, which leaves both of our counts — and their possible consequences — exactly as they were.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1428
– Confirmation Point: 1.1084 – 1.1190
– Upwards Target: 1.1231 – 1.1318
– Wave number: Minuette (ii)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1180
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target: 1.0664 – 1.0346
– Wave number: Minuette (iii)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th June, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in teal wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled maroon waves W, X and Y.

Maroon wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).

Black wave (B) formed a running flat labeled blue waves A, B and C.

Blue wave B retraced exactly 95% of blue wave A, fulfilling the requirements of a flat correction.

Blue wave C formed an ending diagonal labeled pink waves i through v, and failed to make a new high above that of blue wave A. This most likely completed black wave (B) at 1.1616.

Black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue wave 1 through 5.

Within it, blue wave 1 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Within it, pink wave i formed an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

Pink wave ii formed a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing 61.8% of pink wave i.

Pink wave iii is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in pink wave iii.

At 1.0909 pink wave iii would reach 100% the length of pink wave i, then at 1.0589 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1428 as green wave (ii) may move beyond the start of green wave (i).

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that pink wave iii is forming an impulse labeled green wave (i) through (v).

Within it, green wave (ii) is probably forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b, and c. It may develop into a flat, an expanded flat, or a combination correction later on, but for now we’ll keep assuming the simplest case of a zigzag.

Within it, orange wave b formed a zigzag labeled violet waves A, B and C, retracing exactly 78.6% of orange wave a.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in orange wave c to complete green wave (ii). This will be tentatively confirmed by movement above 1.1084, with full confirmation above 1.1190.

At 1.1231 green wave (ii) would retrace 61.8% of green wave (i), then at 1.1318 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1428 as green wave (ii) may move beyond the start of green wave (i).

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that green wave (ii) is is already complete at the 50% retracement level, with orange wave c failing to make a new extreme beyond that of orange wave a — which suggests that the ensuing downtrend will be very strong and swift.

Green wave (iii) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in green wave (iii).

At 1.0664 green wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.0346 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1180 as orange wave ii may move beyond the start of the orange wave i.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that the black wave (B) is forming a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E.

Within it, blue waves A, B, C and D formed zigzags labeled pink waves a, b and c.

Blue wave D reached a little less than 61.8% the length of blue wave B, and retraced a little more than 61.8% of blue wave C.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in blue wave E to complete black wave (B).

At 1.1348 blue wave E would retrace 61.8% of blue wave D, then at 1.1587 it would reach 61.8% the length of blue wave C.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as blue wave E of this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of blue wave D. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as blue wave D of this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of blue wave C.

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