As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached both our first and second targets, and exceeded the latter by 7 pips so far.
And yet, despite our targets’ being reached, the nature of price movement during the day now suggests a slightly different count. So now is the time to prepare for some possible fireworks over the next 24-48 hours.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1217
– Confirmation Point: 1.1128 – 1.1098
– Downwards Target: 1.1052 – 1.0979
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 30th May, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in teal wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled maroon waves W, X and Y.
Maroon wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).
Black wave (A) formed an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.
Black wave (B) formed a running flat labeled blue waves A, B and C.
Both blue waves A and B formed zigzags labeled pink waves a, b and c.
Blue wave B retraced exactly 95% of blue wave A, fulfilling all the requirements of a flat correction.
Blue wave C formed an ending diagonal labeled pink waves i through v, and failed to make a new high above that of blue wave A. This most likely completed black wave (B) at 1.1616.
Black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue wave 1 through 5.
Within it, blue wave 1 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.
Within it, pink wave i is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).
Within it, green waves (i) through (iv) are most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in green wave (v) to complete pink wave i. This will be strongly confirmed by movement below 1.1098.
Both MACD lines are below the zero line and consistently pointing towards the downside.
At 1.1057 green wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.0958 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that green wave (v) is forming an impulse labeled orange waves i through v.
Within it, orange wave i formed an impulse labeled violet waves 1 through 5.
Within it, violet wave 3 formed an extension labeled aqua waves (1) through (5), almost reaching twice the length of violet wave 1.
Orange wave ii is forming a zigzag labeled violet waves A, B and C. It may continue up to around 1.1175, where violet wave C would reach 100% the length of violet wave A.
This count expects the euro soon to move towards the downside in orange wave iii. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.1128, with stronger confirmation below 1.1098.
At 1.1052 orange wave iii would reach 100% the length of orange wave i, then at 1.0979 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1217 as orange wave ii may not move beyond the start of orange wave i.