Archives for May 2016

EURUSD 31st May, 2016

31 May, 2016 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

In our last analysis, right before the final conclusion, we mentioned that price... may continue up to around 1.1175... which it did practically to the pip, right before it dropped to its lowest point of the day. Now the stage seems perfectly set to fulfill the second part of our expectation, which remains almost exactly the same as it was yesterday. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD 30th May, 2016

31 May, 2016 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

On Monday`s session, Cable started the day by creating a new low before reversing directions and moving upwards. Depending on your chosen broker, you would find that Cable either reached the first target to the pip or failed to reach it by merely a fraction of a pip. We are only modifying the wave degree to provide the best fit and the main count continues to expect Cable to unfold downwards as an impulse. On the other hand, alternate count expects Cable to continue unfolding upwards to complete a second wave correction of minor degree. As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 30th May, 2016

30 May, 2016 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached both our first and second targets, and exceeded the latter by 7 pips so far. And yet, despite our targets' being reached, the nature of price movement during the day now suggests a slightly different count. So now is the time to prepare for some possible fireworks over the next 24-48 hours. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

EURUSD: A New Downtrend Begins?

30 May, 2016 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

In the week since we published our last weekly analysis – in which we expected to see a final rally – the market continued its staircase, slow-but-sure decline.

The ending diagonal which looked rather typical a few weeks ago is now coming out of proportion, suggesting that perhaps it had already ended a while back and a new downtrend is slowly, yet confidently, making its way in the market.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1616
– Confirmation Point: 1.1098
– Downwards Target: 1.1057 – 1.0958
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Big Picture

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in teal wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled maroon waves W, X and Y.

Maroon wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled black waves (A), (B) and (C).

Black wave (A) formed an impulse labeled blue waves 1 through 5.

Black wave (B) formed a running flat labeled blue waves A, B and C.

Both blue waves A and B formed zigzags labeled pink waves a, b and c.

Blue wave B retraced exactly 95% of blue wave A, fulfilling all the requirements of a flat correction.

Blue wave C formed an ending diagonal labeled pink waves i through v, and failed to make a new high above that of blue wave A.

This most likely completed black wave (B) at 1.1616.

Main Weekly Wave Count

This main count sees that black wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled blue wave 1 through 5.

Within it, blue wave 1 is forming an impulse labeled pink waves i through v.

Within it, pink wave i is forming an impulse labeled green waves (i) through (v).

Within it, green waves (i) through (iv) are most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in green wave (v) to complete pink wave i. This will be strongly confirmed by movement below 1.1098.

Both MACD lines are below the zero line and consistently pointing towards the downside.

At 1.1059 green wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of green wave (i), then at 1.0958 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1616 as pink wave ii may not move beyond the start of pink wave i.

GBPUSD 27th May, 2016

30 May, 2016 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable unfolded inline with the main count as Cable moved below the main count`s confirmation point and targets are yet to be reached. To recap, Cable continues to provide us with plenty conflicting evidence. Main count expects Cable to continue downwards as an impulse within a third wave while the alternate count expects Cable to unfold upwards to complete a second wave correction. This is a clear reminder for all of us to remain unbiased, both views can turn out to be correct with short term view being bullish and mid term view being bearish. We follow price action, we let the market make up its mind and we follow its path, we do not force our opinions and wishes upon the market. Therefore, we -as always- should wait for either count`s confirmation to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 27th May, 2016

29 May, 2016 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

As expected the euro moved towards the downside, passing our confirmation point by 20 pips. This provides strong confirmation that a new medium-term downtrend has begun, and should continue for another week or so. However, there's still another possibility (although much less likely) that the market is wandering about within an extended flat correction. We're studying both possibilities in today's analysis. But at any rate, both counts expect a similar direction, at least for today. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD 26th May, 2016

27 May, 2016 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable continued its consolidation and it is yet to reach either count`s confirmation point. Cable provides us with plenty conflicting evidence. Those of us who wish Cable to unfold upwards would argue that the hourly MACD suggests with a clear bullish divergence that Cable is going to unfold upwards. On the other hand, those of us who wish Cable to unfold downwards would argue that viewing the daily Japanese candlesticks pattern suggests that Cable has found a top and that it is only going to unfold downwards from here on. This is a clear reminder for all of us to remain unbiased, both views can turn out to be correct with short term view being bullish and mid term view being bearish. We follow price action, we let the market make up its mind and we follow its path, we do not force our opinions and wishes upon the market. Therefore, we -as always- should wait for either count`s confirmation to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 26th May, 2016

26 May, 2016 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached our first target, and exceeded it by 13 pips. The rally came in 3 waves, fulfilling the minimum requirements of a correction, and bringing momentum to what looks like an overbought state. However, the pattern can still allow for more complexity, so we have an alternate count that expects further corrective movement. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD 25th May, 2016

26 May, 2016 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

On Wednesday`s session, Cable did not reach either count`s confirmation point and unfolded upwards invalidating the main hourly count demanding a review for the subdivisions within wave 3 blue. The latest upwards movement -from the low of wave (i) green on the main hourly chart- has been corrective in nature with a 5-3-5 structure indicating a zigzag correction. Even though the upwards subdivisions provides a needed clarity, the subdivisions within wave (i) green are not as clear as we would have preferred and therefore, both counts have equal probabilities from an analytical point of view specially since wave (ii) green is a deep correction. For the main count to prove correct we have to see a clear impulse move downwards breaking below the initial confirmation point to gain confidence in that count. On the other hand, the alternate count expects Cable to continue unfolding upwards to complete wave 2 blue. As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 25th May, 2016

25 May, 2016 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

As expected the euro started the day by moving towards the upside to reach our first target, exceeding it by only 3 pips, and then reversing downwards to complete a 5-wave impulse. The market seems to be in the right position for another fourth-wave correction that should last about 2 days -- whether the euro has already begun this correction or is about to, the outcome should remain pretty much the same. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

Archives for May 2016

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