Instead of moving directly towards the downside as expected, price kept overlapping in what looks like a clear ascending diagonal. This suggests that the alternate count, with a few modifications, was actually closer to the truth.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1465 – 1.1310
– Confirmation Point: 1.1369
– Upwards Target: 1.1369 – 1.1386
– Wave number: Submicro (5)
– Wave structure: Actionary Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th April, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro has been moving sideways in black wave (B), which is forming a contracting triangle labeled blue waves A through E.
Within it, blue wave C is forming a double zigzag labeled pink waves w, x and y.
Within it, pink wave y is forming a zigzag labeled green waves (a), (b) and (c).
Green wave (a) formed a leading diagonal labeled orange waves i through v.
Green wave (b) is forming a zigzag labeled orange waves a, b and c.
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside to complete green wave (b). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1218.
At 1.1143 green wave (b) would retrace 50% of green wave (a), then at 1.1067 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1465 as orange wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of orange wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0821 as green wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of green wave (a).
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that orange wave b is forming an expanded flat labeled violet waves A, B and C.
Within it, violet wave B formed a zigzag labeled aqua waves (A), (B) and (C), retracing about 110% of violet wave A.
Violet wave C is forming an ending diagonal labeled aqua waves (1) through (5).
Within it, aqua waves (1) through (4) are complete, each having formed a zigzag labeled red waves A, B and C.
This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in aqua wave (5) to complete violet wave C, and therefore orange wave b. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1369.
At 1.1369 aqua wave (5) would reach 61.8% the length of aqua wave (3), then at 1.1386 it would reach 78.6% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1310, as red wave B of aqua wave (5) may not move beyond the start of red wave A. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.1465 as orange wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of orange wave a.