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EURUSD 13th April, 2016

The euro witnessed two of the most consistently-trending days in the past few weeks, and the price direction was down throughout. Add to this the bearish divergence in momentum and the clarity of the unfolding pattern, and we may just have the beginning of a long-term downtrend (which is our current main view).

However, our alternate count from yesterday is still in play, and its target have already been reached and exceeded without invalidation, so there’s still room for price to make a new high before it finishes this tiresome upwards correction.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1465
– Confirmation Point: 1.1284 – 1.1326
– Upwards Target: 1.1334 – 1.1384
– Wave number: Minuette (ii)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1186
– Confirmation Point: 1.1465
– Upwards Target: 1.1478 – 1.1539
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 13th April, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro has been moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Within it, minor wave C formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Within it, minute wave y formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in minor wave D, which is likely forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a clear bearish divergence between the highs of minutes waves w and y, as well as a bearish crossover.

At 1.0886 minor wave D would retrace 61.8% of minor wave C, then at 1.0727 it would reach 61.8% the length of minor wave B.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that minute wave a — of minor wave D — is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette wave (i) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, and it’s most likely complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in minuette wave (ii). This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.1284, with higher confirmation above 1.1326.

At 1.1334 minuette wave (ii) would retrace 38.2% of minuette wave (i), then at 1.1384 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1465 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that minuette wave (c) — of minute wave y of minor wave C — is still unfolding.

Within it, subminuette wave iv formed an expanded flat labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Within it, micro wave C formed an impulse labeled submicro waves (1) through (5), and it’s either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in subminuette wave (v), to complete minute wave y, and therefore minor wave C. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1465.

At 1.1478 subminuette wave v would reach 78.6% the length of subminuette wave iii, then at 1.1539 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1186 as subminuette wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i.

3 thoughts on “EURUSD 13th April, 2016”

  1. One more push down towards 1.1233, then up. The Ng’aman say so, so ‘is so.

    400+ pip USD rally next week?

  2. i look forward to such plays.

    USD to gain on acct of Doha collusion. Higher oil prices is one of four key metrics that real money players consider. What you are seeing here is the market starting to price in 40 dollars a barrel. When futures start screaming 45 to 50, the real party begins.

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