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EURUSD 12th April, 2016

The market chose to follow the alternate count by moving towards the upside, reaching our first target, and exceeding it by 5 pips, before immediately dropping over 100 pips within a few hours.

At this point, both of our counts today have nearly equal probabilities (with a slight advantage to the main count), and we’ll need to watch our invalidation and confirmation points to determine which one to follow.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1345
– Confirmation Point: 1.1465
– Upwards Target: 1.1488 – 1.1521
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1465
– Confirmation Point: 1.1345
– Downwards Target: 1.1329 – 1.1295
– Wave number: Micro Y
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 12th April, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro has been moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Within it, minor wave C is forming a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Within it, minute wave y is forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, minuette wave (b) formed a running flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in minuette wave (c), to complete minute wave y, and therefore minor wave C.

At 1.1456 minuette wave (c) would reach 78.6% the length of minuette wave (a), then at 1.1541 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that minuette wave (c) is forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, subminuette wave (iv) formed a double combination labeled micro waves W, X and Y.

Within it, micro wave Y formed an expanded flat labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C), reaching exactly 100% the length of micro wave W.

Within it, submicro wave (C) also reached 100% the length of submicro wave (A).

This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in subminuette wave v, to complete minuette wave (c), and therefore minute wave y, and therefore minor wave C. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1465.

At 1.1488 subminuette wave v would reach 50% the length of subminuette wave iii, then at 1.1521 it would reach 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1345 as no wave within subminuette wave v may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that subminuette wave iv is still unfolding towards the downside.

Within it, micro wave X formed a double zigzag labeled submicro waves (W), (X) and (Y).

Micro wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside to complete micro wave Y, and therefore subminuette wave iv. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1345.

At 1.1329 subminuette wave iv would retrace 38.2% of subminuette wave iii, then at 1.1295 it would retrace 50% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1465 as submicro wave (B) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of submicro wave (A).

3 thoughts on “EURUSD 12th April, 2016”

  1. Ng’aman went long at 1.1302 just under the assumed trend line. One more push down to wake up the giant and then 40 pip rise to some ema or other. I think the fundamental shift is the oil story. Now Iran will also collude but with condition that it raises production between 3.5 to 4 mln brl per day. Othe countries unbound by this meeting, will not increase oil production. They will simply reap the higher prices and save their oil for leaner times. The Ng’aman say so.

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