The market chose to follow the alternate count by moving towards the upside, reaching our first target, and exceeding it by 5 pips, before immediately dropping over 100 pips within a few hours.
At this point, both of our counts today have nearly equal probabilities (with a slight advantage to the main count), and we’ll need to watch our invalidation and confirmation points to determine which one to follow.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1345
– Confirmation Point: 1.1465
– Upwards Target: 1.1488 – 1.1521
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1465
– Confirmation Point: 1.1345
– Downwards Target: 1.1329 – 1.1295
– Wave number: Micro Y
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 12th April, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro has been moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.
Within it, minor wave C is forming a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.
Within it, minute wave y is forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Within it, minuette wave (b) formed a running flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in minuette wave (c), to complete minute wave y, and therefore minor wave C.
At 1.1456 minuette wave (c) would reach 78.6% the length of minuette wave (a), then at 1.1541 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that minuette wave (c) is forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Within it, subminuette wave (iv) formed a double combination labeled micro waves W, X and Y.
Within it, micro wave Y formed an expanded flat labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C), reaching exactly 100% the length of micro wave W.
Within it, submicro wave (C) also reached 100% the length of submicro wave (A).
This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in subminuette wave v, to complete minuette wave (c), and therefore minute wave y, and therefore minor wave C. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1465.
At 1.1488 subminuette wave v would reach 50% the length of subminuette wave iii, then at 1.1521 it would reach 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1345 as no wave within subminuette wave v may move beyond the start of the first wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This alternate count sees that subminuette wave iv is still unfolding towards the downside.
Within it, micro wave X formed a double zigzag labeled submicro waves (W), (X) and (Y).
Micro wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside to complete micro wave Y, and therefore subminuette wave iv. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1345.
At 1.1329 subminuette wave iv would retrace 38.2% of subminuette wave iii, then at 1.1295 it would retrace 50% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1465 as submicro wave (B) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of submicro wave (A).