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EURUSD 9th March, 2016

As expected the euro moved towards the downside, reached our first target, and exceeded by 9 pips, before strongly rebounding towards the upside.

Given that our target was reached, there is a subtle hidden bullish divergence, and the bounce upwards, there’s strong evidence that the market should start moving towards the upside. But if all this turns out to be a prolonged flat correction, then there’s actually room for price to make a new low.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0945
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target: 1.1080 – 1.1163
– Wave number: Minuette (c)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0825
– Confirmation Point: 1.0945
– Downwards Target: 1.0934 – 1.0908
– Wave number: Minuette (b)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Flat

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 9th March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 95% of minor wave A.

Minor wave C formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing close to 78.6% of minor wave B. It’s either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minute waves a, b and c to complete minor wave D.

At 1.0777 minor wave D would reach 50% the length of minor wave B, then at 1.0636 it would reach 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minute wave b of minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that minute wave b is likely forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, minuette wave (a) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minuette wave (b) formed a double combination labeled subminuette waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Minuette wave (c) is forming either an impulse or an ending diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside to complete minuette wave (c), and therefore minute wave b.

The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a hidden bullish divergence, showing that even though there was strong momentum towards the downside, it still failed to drive price to make a new low.

At 1.1080 minuette wave (c) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (a), then at 1.1163 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.9425 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that minuette wave (b) is still unfolding as a flat subminuette waves a, b and c.

Within it, subminuette wave b is itself forming a flat labeled micro waves A, B and C.

This count expects the euro soon to resume moving towards the downside in subminuette wave c to complete minuette wave (b). This will be somewhat confirmed by movement below 1.0945.

At 1.0934 minuette wave (b) would retrace 50% of minuette wave (a), then at 1.0908 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0825 as minuette wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

4 thoughts on “EURUSD 9th March, 2016”

  1. I would love your comments. I had this wave A correction pegged as a flat 5-3-5 with a truncated 5th wave. So I figured that it would go lower than 1.0824 and then bounce hard. Wave c has exceeded the 1.62% target by a few pips.

    a-b-c correction compete by today’s movement. A and B are complete, C should start now. I would love your comments here.

    I suspect that we will fall a few hundred pips to 1.0685. I estimate that wave 2 will be quite long.

    1. Hi Viktor,

      Absolutely great job catching that flat, as well as spotting the ending diagonal. We could probably talk a little bit about the subdivisions with that, but that’s a minor issue 🙂

      Hope you had a nice ride on the euro’s way up 😀

      1. I also hope Viktor had a nice euro ride. In your analysis was written that wave b can’t go below start of wave a. Obviously it can, and like Viktor said after that will follow strong rally.

      2. Hi Niko.. Yes, I did make a mistake thinking that this was a zigzag, and so logically I had to say wave b couldn’t move below the start of wave a. Sorry about that, and we’ll make up for it on the next ride 🙂

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