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EURUSD 8th March, 2016

The euro moved pretty much as expected by the main count. It began by moving slightly higher and making a new (fake) high, before rebounding strongly towards the downside and wiping out all its gains during the day.

This strongly supports our suspicion that a flat, sideways correction is unfolding, and now should be the time for a temporary decline.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0825
– Confirmation Point: 1.0993
– Downwards Target: 1.0954 – 1.0890
– Wave number: Subminuette c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 8th March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 95% of minor wave A.

Minor wave C formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing close to 78.6% of minor wave B. It’s either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minute waves a, b and c to complete minor wave D.

At 1.0777 minor wave D would reach 50% the length of minor wave B, then at 1.0636 it would reach 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minute wave b of minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that minute wave b is likely forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, minuette wave (a) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, subminuette wave iii reached 261.8% the length of subminuette wave i.

Subminuette wave iv formed a running flat, retracing about 61.8% of subminuette wave iii.

Subminuette wave v reached almost 100% the length of both subminuette waves i and iii. It’s very likely complete.

Minuette wave (b) is likely forming a flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Within it, subminuette wave a formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Subminuette wave b formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing 114% of subminuette wave a, and it’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to resume moving towards the downside in subminuette wave c to complete minuette wave (b). This will be somewhat confirmed by movement below 1.0993.

At 1.0954 subminuette wave c would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave a, then at 1.0890 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0825 as minuette wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a). Also, if subminuette wave b is indeed complete, then price should not move above 1.1057, but this is not a hard invalidation point for the time-being.

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