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EURUSD 7th March, 2016

As expected the euro started moving towards the downside and has even reached our first target and exceeded it by 40 pips, before rebounding towards the upside.

This all gives the look that a flat, sideways correction is unfolding, and that it might even make a slight new (false) high. The second count, however, still suspects a continuation of the short-term rally. We don’t have enough price data at this point to favor one count over the other, so we’ll have to keep monitoring the market for new signs.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0825
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target: 1.0960 – 1.0908
– Wave number: Minuette (b)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Flat, Triangle, or Combination

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0903
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target: 1.1054 – 1.1096
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 7th March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Minor wave A formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 95% of minor wave A.

Minor wave C formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing close to 78.6% of minor wave B. It’s either complete or near completion.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minute waves a, b and c to complete minor wave D.

At 1.0777 minor wave D would reach 50% the length of minor wave B, then at 1.0636 it would reach 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minute wave b of minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that minute wave a formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette wave (v) formed an ending diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v, each forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Minute wave b could be forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, minuette wave (a) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, subminuette wave iii reached 261.8% the length of subminuette wave i.

Subminuette wave iv formed a running flat, retracing about 61.8% of subminuette wave iii.

Subminuette wave v reached almost 100% the length of both subminuette waves i and iii. It’s very likely complete.

Minuette wave (b) is likely forming a flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Within it, subminuette wave a formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Subminuette wave b seems also to be forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

This count expects the euro to resume moving towards the downside in subminuette wave c to complete minuette wave (b).

At 1.0960 minuette wave (b) would retrace 38.2% of minuette wave (a), then at 1.0908 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0825 as minuette wave (b) of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that subminuette wave v is still unfolding as either an impulse or an ending diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in subminuette wave v to complete minuette wave (a).

At 1.1054 subminuette wave v would reach 127.2% the length of subminuette wave iii, then at 1.1096 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0903 as micro wave 2 may not move beyond the start of micro wave 1.

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