As expected the euro started the day by moving briefly towards the downside, reaching our first target, and then immediately rebounding upwards for 100 pips.
All indicators now agree that price is in a perfect position to complete the upwards pattern and begin a downtrend reversal. But we’re also including an alternate count that allows for one more rally, although it’s not as ideal as the main count.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1411
– Confirmation Point: 1.1310
– Downwards Target: 1.1246 – 1.1143
– Wave number: Minuette (i)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Leading Diagonal
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1186
– Confirmation Point: 1.1411
– Upwards Target: 1.1413 – 1.1439
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 31st March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro has been moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.
Within it, minor wave C formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.
Within it, minute wave y formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Within it, minuette wave (b) formed a running flat labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minor wave D, which will likely form a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, and within it, minute wave a will likely form an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1143.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a bearish divergence between the ends of minute waves w and y.
At 1.0954 minor wave D would reach 38.2% the length of minor wave B, then at 1.0671 it would reach 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.10516 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that minuette wave (c) — of minute wave y of minor wave C — formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Within it, subminuette wave ii formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing 78.6% of subminuette wave i.
Subminuette wave iii formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5. Within it, micro wave 3 formed an extension labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
Subminuette wave iv formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.
Subminuette wave v formed a clear impulse, which completed minuette wave (v), and therefore minute wave y, and therefore minor wave C.
Minor wave D is likely forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave a is likely forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in minuette wave (i). This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.1310.
It’s too early in the pattern to have enough subdivisions to calculate accurate targets, so we’ll use Fibonacci retracement levels of the previous minuette wave (c) as initial targets.
At 1.1246 price would retrace 61.8% of minuette wave (c), then at 1.1143 it would retrace 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1411 as no wave within minuette wave (i) may move beyond the start of the first wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This alternate count sees that, within minuette wave (c), only subminuette waves i, ii and iii are complete, and subminuette wave iv is either complete or very near completion.
This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in subminuette wave v, which will complete minuette wave (c), and therefore minute wave y, and therefore minor wave C. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1411.
At 1.1413 subminuette wave v would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.1439 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1186 as subminuette wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i.