EURUSD 28th March, 2016

Even though the euro’s rally today was a humble 70-pip move, it served to confirm that the downwards diagonal was complete and that a second-wave correction had begun to unfold towards the upside.

By their very nature, corrections are usually tricky to track, and so today we have two high-probability counts. The first considers that this corrective rally is still ongoing, whereas the second expects that it has already formed its top. Both counts have nearly identical probabilities at this point.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1173 – 1.1337
– Confirmation Point: 1.1219
– Upwards Target: 1.1233 – 1.1257
– Wave number: Micro 5
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1219
– Confirmation Point: 1.1173
– Downwards Target: 1.1026 – 1.0906
– Wave number: Minuette (iii)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro had been moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which formed a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Minor waves B, C, D and E each formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave E reached exactly 61.8% the length of minor wave C, and it made a slight overshoot above the upper trend line of the triangle, which is typical.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in intermediate wave (C), which will most likely form an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.0812, with final confirmation below 1.0516.

At 0.9832 primary wave Y would reach 100% the length of primary wave W, then at 0.9160 intermediate wave (C) would reach 61.8% the length of intermediate wave (A).

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1337 as minor wave 2 of intermediate wave (C) may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that minor wave 1 (of intermediate wave (C)) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i is most likely forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette wave (i) formed a leading diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v, each forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Minuette wave (ii) is forming a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Within it, subminuette wave b formed a double zigzag labeled micro waves W, X and Y, retracing 78.6% of subminuette wave a.

Subminuette wave c is forming an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

This count expects the euro to make one final move towards the upside in micro wave 5 to complete subminuette wave c, and therefore minuette wave (ii). This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1219.

At 1.1233 micro wave 5 would reach 61.8% the length of micro wave 3, then at 1.1257 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.1173 as micro wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of micro wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement above 1.1337 as minuette wave (ii) may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that minuette wave (ii) is already complete as a double zigzag labeled subminuette waves w, x and y, retracing 38.2% of minuette wave (i).

Within it, subminuette wave y reached exactly 161.8% the length of subminuette wave w.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in minuette wave (iii). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1173.

At 1.1026 minuette wave (iii) would reach 100% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.0906 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1219 as no second wave within minuette wave (iii) may move beyond the start of the first wave.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that minor wave C is actually still unfolding towards the upside as a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Within it, minute waves w and x and are complete.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in minute wave y to complete minor wave C. This will be fully confirmed by movement above 1.1376.

At 1.1352 minute wave y would reach 61.8% the length of minute wave w, then at 1.1497 it would reach 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0821 as minuette wave (b) of minute wave y may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (a).

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