The euro invalidated the main count and initially confirmed the alternate count by moving below 1.1242.
So far the movement has been very slow and overlapping, unlike what we would normally expect after the end of a triangle, but this could reasonably be just a warm-up, so let’s stay sharp.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1337
– Confirmation Point: 1.1259
– Upwards Target: 1.1270 – 1.1296
– Wave number: Minuette (ii)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 21st March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro had been moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which formed a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.
Minor waves B, C, D and E each formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Minor wave E reached exactly 61.8% the length of minor wave C, and it made a slight overshoot above the upper trend line of the triangle, which is typical.
This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in intermediate wave (C), which will most likely form an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.0812, with final confirmation below 1.0516.
At 0.9832 primary wave Y would reach 100% the length of primary wave W, then at 0.9160 intermediate wave (C) would reach 61.8% the length of intermediate wave (A).
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minor wave E may not move beyond the start of minor wave D.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that minor wave 1 (of intermediate wave (C)) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave i is most likely forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (i) formed a leading diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v, and it’s most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to start moving sideways to upwards in minuette wave (ii). This will be somewhat confirmed by movement above 1.1259.
At 1.1270 minuette wave (ii) would retrace 38.2% of minuette wave (i), then at 1.1296 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1337 as minuette wave (ii) of minute wave i may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This alternate daily count sees that minor wave C is actually still unfolding towards the upside as a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.
Within it, minute waves w and x and are complete.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in minute wave y to complete minor wave C. This will be fully confirmed by movement above 1.1376.
At 1.1352 minute wave y would reach 61.8% the length of minute wave w, then at 1.1497 it would reach 78.6% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minute wave x may not move beyond the start of minute wave w.