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EURUSD 17th March, 2016

The euro had another surprise in store, as price rallied over 100 pips and came to within 35 pips of our medium-term invalidation point.

But first, I deeply apologize for the delay in the publication of today’s analysis, as I had a hard-drive failure and I had to redo all the charts from scratch. There’s an upside to this, however, as I had to revisit the possibility that the long-term triangle formation may actually be complete or on the verge of completion, as we’ll discuss in a moment.

Today we have two hourly counts and two daily counts. There isn’t enough evidence right now to favor one over the other, but the price action of today and early next week should settle this once and for all. (Personally, I suspect that the “alternate” count is actually the correct, but I’ll refrain from promoting it right now since it involves a change of a long-term trend, which is an event for which I’d like to wait for some confirmation first.)

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1242 – 1.1376
– Confirmation Point: 1.1342
– Upwards Target: 1.1360
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1336
– Confirmation Point: 1.1242
– Downwards Target: 1.1057
– Wave number: Minute i
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Leading Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 17th March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E. This triangle is either complete or very near completion.

Minor waves B, C, D and E each formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave E reached exactly 61.8% the length of minor wave C, and it made a slight overshoot above the upper trend line of the triangle, which is typical.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in intermediate wave (C), which will most likely form an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.0812, with final confirmation below 1.0516.

At 0.9832 primary wave Y would reach 100% the length of primary wave W, then at 0.9160 intermediate wave (C) would reach 61.8% the length of intermediate wave (A).

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minor wave E may not move beyond the start of minor wave D.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that minute wave c of minor wave E is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette waves (i), (ii) and (iii) are complete, and minuette wave (iv) is near completion.

This count expects the euro to continue moving slightly towards the upside in minuette wave (v) to complete minute wave c, and therefore minor wave E, and therefore intermediate wave (B). This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1342.

At 1.1360 minuette wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (iii).

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minor wave E may not move beyond the start of minor wave D. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.1242 as minuette wave (iv) of this impulse may not enter the price territory of minuette wave (i).

Any movement below 1.1242 will immediately promote the alternate count below.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This alternate count sees that minuette wave (v) of minute wave c has already ended in a truncation, completing minute wave c, and therefore minor wave E, and therefore intermediate wave (B).

Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 1 is most likely forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in minute wave i. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1242.

We don’t currently have enough subdivisions within the new downtrend to calculate precise targets, so we’ll place our initial target at the recent significant low of 1.1057.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1336 as minuette wave (ii) of minute wave i may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (i).

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that minor wave C is actually still unfolding towards the upside as a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Within it, minute waves w and x and are complete.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in minute wave y to complete minor wave C.

At 1.1352 minute wave y would reach 61.8% the length of minute wave w, then at 1.1497 it would reach 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minute wave x may not move beyond the start of minute wave w.

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