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EURUSD 16th March, 2016

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, and so far it’s come about about 10 pips short of reaching our first target. Now this rally is most likely complete.

There is a couple of other possible counts that would allow for price to make another high within a few days, but since all of them expect a fairly strong decline first (pretty much like our main count today), we’ll leave them out of the analysis for now in order to keep things simple.

We’ve also made slight changes to the larger-degree labels to better fit the new developments and make the count simpler and more efficient.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0516 – 1.1376
– Confirmation Point: 1.1204 – 1.1057
– Downwards Target: 1.0916 – 1.0706
– Wave number: Minute y
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 16th March, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.

Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 95% of minor wave A.

Minor wave C formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing close to 78.6% of minor wave B.

Minor wave D is forming a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Within it, minute wave w is complete, and minute wave x is either complete or very near completion.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in minute wave y to complete minor wave D.

At 1.0777 minor wave D would reach 50% the length of minor wave B, then at 1.0636 it would reach 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minute wave x of minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minute wave w. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This main count sees that minute wave x is forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Within it, minuette wave (b) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing just over 38.2% of minuette wave (a).

Within it, subminuette wave b formed a barrier triangle labeled micro waves A through E.

Minuette wave (c) is likely forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, and it’s either complete or very near completion.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in minute wave y to complete minor wave D. This will be initially confirmed by movement below 1.1204, with final confirmation below 1.1057.

At 1.0916 minute wave y would reach 61.8% the length of minute wave w, then at 1.0706 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minute wave x of minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minute wave w. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

This alternate daily count sees that minor wave C is actually still unfolding towards the upside as a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.

Within it, minute waves w and x and are complete.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in minute wave y to complete minor wave C.

At 1.1352 minute wave y would reach 61.8% the length of minute wave w, then at 1.1497 it would reach 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1714 as minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minor wave B. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0516 as minute wave x may not move beyond the start of minute wave w.

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