As expected the euro continued moving towards the downside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded them by 18 pips.
Whether this concludes the downtrend or not is still debatable. But it’s fairly clear that the downwards potential is quite limited, and an upwards reversal is very likely to occur any time now.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0859
– Confirmation Point: 1.0962
– Upwards Target: 1.1057 – 1.1179
– Wave number: Minute b
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0962
– Confirmation Point: 1.0859
– Downwards Target: 1.0805
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 29th February, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.
Minor wave A formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.
Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 95% of minor wave A.
Minor wave C formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing close to 78.6% of minor wave B. It’s either complete or near completion.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minute waves a, b and c to complete minor wave D.
At 1.0780 minor wave D would reach 50% the length of minor wave B, then at 1.0639 it would reach 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minute wave b of minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that minor wave D is forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave a formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), and it’s now complete.
Within it, minuette wave (iv) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing about 38.2% of minuette wave (iii).
Minuette wave (v) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, reaching over 61.8% the length of minuette wave (iii).
Within it, subminuette wave v reached exactly 161.8% the length of subminuette wave i.
This count expects the euro to start moving towards the upside in minute wave b. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0962.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a bullish divergence between the ends of subminuette waves v and iii.
At 1.1057 minute wave b would retrace 38.2% of minute wave a, then at 1.1179 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0859.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
This alternate count sees that minuette wave (v) is forming an ending diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v, each forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in subminuette wave v of minuette wave (v) to complete minute wave a. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0859.
At 1.0805 minuette wave (v) would reach 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i).
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0962 as subminuette wave iv may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave iii.