Once again the market favored our alternate count and adhered to it very nicely, as price moved strongly towards the downside, reached our first target, and came within 6 pips of reaching our second target.
Judging by all the available clues and indications, the euro ideally still has one more leg to go down, before the market enters a temporary period of sideways-to-upwards correction.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1005
– Confirmation Point: 1.0912
– Downwards Target: 1.0902 – 1.0877
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th February, 2016. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving sideways in intermediate wave (B), which is likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minor waves A through E.
Minor wave A formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y.
Minor wave B formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing 95% of minor wave A.
Minor wave C formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing close to 78.6% of minor wave B. It’s either complete or near completion.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minute waves a, b and c to complete minor wave D.
At 1.0780 minor wave D would reach 50% the length of minor wave B, then at 1.0639 it would reach 61.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1376 as minute wave b of minor wave C may not move beyond the start of minute wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as minor wave D may not move beyond the start of minor wave C.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that minor wave D is forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave a is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (iii) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, reaching well over 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i).
Minuette wave (iv) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing about 38.2% of minuette wave (iii).
Minuette wave (v) is forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Within it, subminuette waves i through iii are complete, and subminuette wave iv is most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in subminuette wave v to complete minuette wave (v). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0912.
At 1.0902 subminuette wave v would reach 61.8% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.0877 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1005 as subminuette wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i.