GBPUSD 29th December, 2015

Cable unfolded downwards confirming the alternate hourly count and -so far- Cable fell short of the target at 1.4779 by 6 pips.

Trading during this time of the year can be tougher than usual due to the ultra-thin volume behind price action, therefore, we are adding a second alternate count which even though it differ from the first alternate count for the mid and long terms views, it agrees with the first alternate count for the very short term view.

The advantage we gain from the second alternate count is the presence of short term targets, confirmation and invalidation points that might provide value from a practical trading perspective as two counts expects Cable to unfold in the same direction.

Today`s main count expects that Cable has one last push downwards to complete a B wave before reversing directions upwards to complete wave 2 blue.

The first alternate hourly count expects that B wave is mature and that wave c pink within wave 2 blue has started unfolding upwards.

Second alternate count expects that wave 2 blue is complete and that wave 3 blue is underway as we will soon discuss.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4875
– Confirmation Point: 1.4785
– Downwards Target: 1.4779
– Wave number: b pink
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Expanded flat

First Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5932 — 1.4785
– Confirmation Point: 1.5241
– Upwards Targets: 1.5268 — 1.5328 — 1.5347
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Second Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.4785 — 1.5241
– Confirmation Point: 1.4914
– Upwards Target: 1.4960 — 1.5014 — 1.5067
– Wave number: (ii) green
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 29th December, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon intermediate waves (1) and (2) black might be complete and intermediate wave (3) black has started unfolding downwards.

Intermediate wave (2) black unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C blue.

Wave B blue unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Wave C blue unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v pink.

Within intermediate wave (3) black it is expected that minor wave 1 blue is complete as a leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave i pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave iii pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave v pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

This count expects that minor wave 2 blue is unfolding as an expanded flat correction labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink complete and wave b pink is at its very late stages.

Within wave b pink it is likely that waves (a) and (b) green are complete and that wave (c) green is underway.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.4785.

At 1.4779 wave b pink would reach 1.382 of wave a pink which is the common target for the completion of B waves in an expanded flat corrections.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4945 as within wave (c) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Main Hourly Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on 2-hours chart for clarification purposes.

This count expects that minor wave 1 blue is complete and that minor wave 2 blue has started unfolding in a sideways manner.

Wave 2 blue is likely unfolding as an expanded flat labeled waves a, b and c pink with wave a pink complete and wave b pink is at its very late stages.

Expanded flat corrections unfold as a 3-3-5, therefore, following the completion of wave b pink, this count expects that wave c pink is going to unfold upwards as a five wave structure -i.e. impulse or ending diagonal- .

Wave a pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green with wave (c) green unfolding as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave b pink is unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green with waves (a) and (b) green complete and wave (c) green is unfolding downwards.

Within wave (c) green it is likely that waves i through iv orange are complete and that wave v orange is underway.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.4785.

At 1.4779 wave b pink would reach 1.382 of wave a pink which is the common target for the completion of B waves in an expanded flat corrections.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.4875 as wave iv orange may not enter the price territory of wave i orange.

First Alternate Hourly Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on 2-hours chart for clarification purposes.

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave b pink.

This count expects that wave b pink is complete and that wave c pink has started unfolding upwards.

Wave b pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Wave (a) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (b) green unfolded as a triangle labeled waves a through e orange.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.5241.

At 1.5268 wave c pink would reach 1.382 of wave a pink and at 1.5328 wave c pink would reach 1.618 of wave a pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5932 as wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4785 as within wave c pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Second Alternate Hourly Wave Count


N.B.: This count is presented on 6-hours chart for clarification purposes.

This count provides a short term trading opportunity as the first alternate count does not provide such an opportunity for the short term.

This count expects that wave 2 blue is complete and that wave 3 blue has started unfolding downwards.

Wave 2 blue unfolded as a shallow zigzag labeled waves a, b and c pink.

Within wave 3 blue, this count expects that wave i pink is unfolding downwards.

Within wave i pink it is likely that wave (i) green is complete as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange and that wave (ii) green has started unfolding upwards in a corrective manner.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.4914.

At 1.4960 wave (ii) green would reach 0.382 of wave (i) green and at 1.5014 wave (ii) green would reach 50 % of wave (i) green and the final target is at 1.5067 as at that level wave (ii) green would reach 0.618 of wave (i) green.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.4785 as within wave (ii) green no B wave may retrace more than 100 % of its A wave and as well, this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5241 as wave (ii) green may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (i) green.

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