The euro continued moving slowly towards the upside, and even managed to make a new, slightly higher high.
The great thing about Elliott Wave analysis is that, even when price proves you wrong, it usually gives you plenty of information to make adjustment and reach better conclusions, which is exactly what we’re aiming to do today.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1059 – 1.0802
– Confirmation Point: 1.0932
– Downwards Target: 1.0873 – 1.0833
– Wave number: Minute d
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th December, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave v formed an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minor wave 4 is most likely forming a contracting triangle labeled minute waves a through e.
This count expects the euro soon to continue moving sideways to upwards in minor wave 4.
At 1.0896 minor wave 4 would retrace 38.2% of minor wave 3, then at 1.1010 it would retrace 50% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as minute wave b of this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of minute wave a.
If price moves above 1.1087, this would be our cue to turn bullish in anticipation of price’s reaching at least 1.1718 over the coming few months.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that minute wave c (of minor wave 4) formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), and it’s most likely complete or very near completion.
Within it, minuette wave (a) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Minuette wave (b) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing 61.8% of minuette wave (a).
Minuette wave (c) formed an ending diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v, reaching 61.8% the length of minuette wave (a), and it’s most likely complete or very near completion.
This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in minute wave (d). This will be somewhat confirmed by movement below 1.0932.
At 1.0873 minute wave d would retrace 61.8% of minute wave c, then at 1.0833 it would reach 61.8% the length of minute wave b.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1059 as minute wave c of this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of minute wave b. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0802 as minuette wave (d) of this contracting triangle may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (c).
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This alternate daily count sees that minor wave 4 is already complete and that minor wave 5 is unfolding towards the downside as an impulse or an ending diagonal labeled minute waves i through v.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minor wave 5 (of intermediate wave (C), of primary wave Y, of cycle wave x). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0525.
At 1.0428 minor wave 5 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0038 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1059 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.