Since the market was closed over the last session due to the holidays, our count remains pretty much the same, with only minor modifications to account for the brief new movement.
You’ll probably notice that we’re keeping our invalidation points a bit far away from the action, since there are several possible patterns in which price can unfold at this point, and it’d be impractical and confusing to list every one of them. This is why we’re placing invalidation points to account for most reasonable possibilities.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1087 – 1.0802
– Confirmation Point: 1.0932
– Downwards Target: 1.0873 – 1.0807
– Wave number: Minute b
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Running Triangle
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 25th December, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave v formed an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minor wave 4 is unfolding a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave b is forming a running triangle labeled minuette waves (a) through (e), retracing 23.6% of minute wave a, and it’s either complete or near completion.
This count expects the euro soon to continue moving towards the upside in minute wave c to complete minor wave 4.
At 1.1059 minute wave c would reach the highest point in the preceding triangle.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0525 as minute wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of minute wave a.
If price moves above 1.1087, this would be our cue to turn bullish in anticipation of price’s reaching at least 1.1718 over the coming few months.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This main count sees that minute wave b (of minor wave 4) is still unfolding as a running triangle labeled minuette waves (a) through (e).
Minuette wave (e) is forming a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Within it, subminuette wave a formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Subminuette wave b formed a double zigzag labeled micro waves W, X and Y, and it’s most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in subminuette wave c of minuette wave (e) to complete minute wave b. This will be somewhat confirmed by movement below 1.0932.
At 1.0873 minute wave b would retrace 23.6% of minute wave a, then at 1.0807 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0802 as minuette wave (e) of this running triangle may not move beyond the start of minuette wave (d).
Alternate Daily Wave Count
This alternate daily count sees that minor wave 4 is already complete and that minor wave 5 is unfolding towards the downside as an impulse or an ending diagonal labeled minute waves i through v.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minor wave 5 (of intermediate wave (C), of primary wave Y, of cycle wave x). This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0525.
At 1.0428 minor wave 5 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0038 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1059 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.