Today the euro ignored our main count (which expected an upwards correction had started) and breached its invalidation point by 8 pips.
Interestingly, this does not conclusively confirm the alternate count, which now has so many unlikely irregularities that we decided it was much better to cast it aside — particularly since the updated main count implicitly contains all of its details.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1087 – 1.0548
– Confirmation Point: 1.0638
– Upwards Target: 1.0689
– Wave number: Minuette (i)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Leading Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 30th November, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave v formed an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), reaching 100% the length of minute wave iii.
This count expects the euro very soon to start moving sideways to upwards in minor wave 4, which will likely last at least for several weeks.
At 1.0779 minor wave 4 would retrace 23.6% of minor wave 3, then at 1.0916 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1.
Main Hourly Wave Count
The main count sees that minute wave v (of minor wave 3) is forming an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), and it’s all very near completion.
Within it, minuette wave (v) is forming a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Within it, subminuette wave c is probably forming an ending diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5, each subdividing as a zigzag labeled submicro waves (1) through (5).
Within it, micro waves 1, 2 and 3 are complete. This should soon be followed by micro waves 4 and 5, to complete subminuette wave c, and therefore minuette wave (v), and therefore minute wave v, and ultimately minor wave 3.
This count expects the euro very soon to start moving sideways to upwards in minor wave 4, which will likely last at least for several weeks. Assuming the simplest pattern, it will most likely form a zigzag labeled minute wave a, b and c, and within it minute wave a will form an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v). This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0638.
The MACD indicator supports this count by showing a clear bullish divergence.
At this early stage, the only logical target is at the one-larger degree high at 1.0689.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0548 as minuette wave (iii) (of minute wave v of minor wave 3) may not be the shortest among minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v).