Still nothing to report on the euro for the second day in a row. Only a minor 70-pip hiccup towards the downside, but price is yet to reach any of our confirmation or invalidation points.
On the plus side, this is still perfectly in line with both of our counts, so your trading plan shouldn’t need to change very much. The downside, however, is that many traders feel pressured to rush in a trade out of pure boredom, which never ends very well.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0566
– Confirmation Point: 1.0638
– Upwards Target: 1.0691 – 1.0766
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0763 – 1.0548
– Confirmation Point: 1.0566
– Downwards Target: 1.0566
– Wave number: Subminuette c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th November, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave v formed an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), reaching 100% the length of minute wave iii.
This count expects the euro to start moving sideways to upwards in minor wave 4, which will likely last at least for several weeks.
At 1.0779 minor wave 4 would retrace 23.6% of minor wave 3, then at 1.0916 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1.
Main Hourly Wave Count
The main count sees that minute wave v (of minor wave 3) formed an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (v) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Within it, subminuette wave a formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5, and subminuette wave b formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing a little less than 61.8% of subminuette wave a.
This count sees that minor wave 4 is probably unfolding as a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave a is probably forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (i) is probably forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i though v.
Within it, subminuette wave ii formed a flat labeled micro waves A, B and C, with each of micro waves A and B subdividing into a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
This count expects the euro to start moing towards the upside in subminuette waves iii. This will be somewhat confirmed by movement above 1.0638.
At 1.0691 subminuette wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.0766 it would reach 261.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0566 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The alternate count sees that minuette wave v (of minute wave v of minor wave 3) is still unfolding as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Within it, subminuette wave b is forming a barrier triangle labeled micro waves A through E, each subdividing into a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
Within it, micro waves A, B, C and D are complete, and micro wave E is very near completion, therefore completing subminuette wave b.
This count expects the euro soon to resume moving towards the downside in subminuette wave c, to complete minuette wave (v), and therefore minute wave v, and therefore minor wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0566.
At this late stage, the only logical target we have is at the most recent low at 1.0566.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0763 as subminuette wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0548 as minuette wave (iii) may not be the shortest among minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v).