Today was one of those days where price action was nothing but several hours of brutal boredom.
On the plus side, this is perfectly in line with both of our counts, so your trading plan shouldn’t need to change very much. The downside, however, is that many traders feel pressured to rush in a trade out of pure boredom, which never ends very well.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0566
– Confirmation Point: 1.0689
– Upwards Target: 1.0689
– Wave number: Minuette (i)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Leading Diagonal
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0763 – 1.0548
– Confirmation Point: 1.0566
– Downwards Target: 1.0566
– Wave number: Subminuette c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th November, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
Within it, minute wave v formed an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), reaching 100% the length of minute wave iii.
This count expects the euro to start moving sideways to upwards in minor wave 4, which will likely last at least for several weeks.
At 1.0779 minor wave 4 would retrace 23.6% of minor wave 3, then at 1.0916 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1.
Main Hourly Wave Count
The main count sees that minute wave v (of minor wave 3) formed an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (v) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Within it, subminuette wave a formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5, of which micro wave 3 formed an extension labeled submicro waves (1) through (5), of which submicro wave (3) formed another extension labeled miniscule waves 1 through 5.
Subminuette wave b formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing a little less than 61.8% of subminuette wave a.
This count sees that minor wave 4 is probably unfolding as a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave a is probably forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (i) is probably forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i though v.
Within it, subminuette wave ii is probably forming a double zigzag labeled micro waves W, X and Y, each subdividing into submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
This count expects the euro to continue its development towards the upside in subminuette waves iii, iv and v to complete minuette wave (i). This will be somewhat confirmed by movement above 1.0689.
At this early stage, our target lies at the most recent high at 1.0689.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0566 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The alternate count sees that minuette wave v (of minute wave v) is still unfolding as a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Within it, subminuette wave b is forming a double combination labeled micro waves W, X and Y, each subdividing into a zigzag labeled submicro waves (A), (B) and (C).
This count expects the euro first to move towards the upside in submicro wave (C), to complete micro wave Y, and therefore subminuette wave b, before reversing towards the downside in subminuette wave c, to complete minuette wave (v), and therefore minute wave v, and therefore minor wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0566.
At this late stage, the only logical target we have is at the most recent low at 1.0566.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0763 as subminuette wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0548 as minuette wave (iii) may not be the shortest among minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v).