Seeing how the euro spent the day zigzagging in a slow, clearly overlapping manner, it’s becoming much more likely that what we’re witnessing right now is a limited upwards correction, rather than an effective interruption of the downtrend.
In light of this recent development, we’re professionally obligated to swap our main count with the alternate count, in order to present you with the more probable scenarios in order of likelihood. Keep in mind, however, that the downwards potential is almost certainly still quite limited.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0763 – 1.0548
– Confirmation Point: 1.0592
– Downwards Target: 1.0592 – 1.0582
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Actionary Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1087 – 1.0592
– Confirmation Point: 1.0763
– Upwards Target: 1.0805 – 1.0937
– Wave number: Minor 4
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, Triangle, or Combination
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 24th November, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.
Minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, and it’s very near completion.
This count expects the euro to make one final low in minute wave v to complete minor wave 3, before reversing direction and moving sideways to upwards in minor wave 4, which will likely last at least for several weeks.
At 1.0582 minute wave v would reach 100% the length of minute wave iii.
As the euro finishes minor wave 3 and begins minor wave 4, this wave count would be invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1.
Main Hourly Wave Count
The main count sees that minute wave v of minor wave 3 is forming an ending diagonal labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (v) is forming a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Within it, subminuette wave a formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Within it, micro wave 3 formed an extension labeled submicro waves (1) through (5), of which submicro wave (3) formed another extension labeled miniscule waves 1 through 5.
Subminuette wave b is still unfolding sideways to upwards, and it may very well be near completion.
This count expects the euro soon to resume moving towards the downside in subminuette wave c, to complete minuette wave (v), and therefore minute wave v, and therefore minor wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0592.
At 1.0592 subminuette wave c would reach the low of subminuette wave a, then at 1.0582 minute wave v would reach 100% the length of minute wave iii.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0763 as subminuette wave b of this zigzag may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave a. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0548 as minuette wave (iii) may not be the shortest among minuette waves (i), (iii) and (v).
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The alternate count sees that minor wave 3 is already complete.
This count expects the euro to be moving sideways to upwards in minor wave 4. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0763.
At 1.0805 minor wave 4 would retrace 23.6% of minor wave 3, then at 1.0937 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1.