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EURUSD 19th November, 2015

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, but we still haven’t seen the kind of force we expect to see very soon. Today we’re able to present a couple of nicely-defined short-term targets.

The alternate hasn’t been invalidated yet, but it’s becoming more highly unlikely by the hour.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0617 – 1.1087
– Confirmation Point: 1.0763
– Upwards Target: 1.0771 – 1.0834
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0778
– Confirmation Point: 1.0617
– Downwards Target: 1.0585 – 1.0509
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Expanding Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 18th November, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.

Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).

Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.

Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching exactly 138.2% the length of minor wave 1, and it’s most likely complete.

Within it, minute wave iii reached twice the length of minute wave i.

Minute wave iv retraced 23.6% of minute wave iii.

Minute wave v reached 100% the combined length of both minute waves i and iii.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the upside in minor wave 4.

At 1.0824 minor wave 4 would retrace 38.2% of minor wave 3.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1.

Main Hourly Wave Count

The main count sees that minute wave v of minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette wave (v) formed an ending diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v, each forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Within it, subminuette wave v reached exactly 61.8% the length of subminuette wave iii.

The larger-degree minor wave 4 is probably forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Within it, minute wave a is likely forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette wave (i) is likely forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, subminuette wave ii formed a flat labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing 50% of subminuette wave i.

This count expects the euro continued moving towards the upside in subminuette wave iii, which must form an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0763.

At 1.0771 subminuette wave iii would reach 100%% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.0834 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1087 as minor wave 4 of this impulse may not enter the price territory of minor wave 1. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0617 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

The alternate count sees that minuette wave (v) is still unfolding towards the downside as an expanding ending diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, subminuette waves i, ii and iii are complete, and subminuette wave iv is most likely complete as well.

This count expects the euro soon to resume moving towards the downside in subminuette wave v of minuette wave (v), which will complete minute wave v, and thereby minor wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0617.

At 1.0585 minuette wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (iii), then at 1.0509 it would reach 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i).

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0778 as subminuette wave iv may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave iii.

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