Today the euro nicely followed the early stages of our expectation, engaging in a limited downwards movement.
Our primary view is that this is the build-up for a nice upwards movement. But we also want to pay attention to an equally valid view, which sees that the market is poised for another decline first.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1495 – 1.0674
– Confirmation Point: 1.0774
– Upwards Target: 1.0805 – 1.0866
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0897
– Confirmation Point: 1.0674
– Downwards Target: 1.0590 – 1.0452
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 11th November, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 1 is complete.
Minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minor wave 3, which must be forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.
At 1.0473 minor wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of minor wave 1, then at 0.9842 it would reach 261.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1495 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
The main count sees that minute wave i is now complete, having unfolded as an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Minute wave ii is most likely forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).
Within it, minuette wave (a) seems to be forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Subminuette wave ii retraced 61.8% of subminuette wave i, and it’s most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to move towards the upside in subminuette wave iii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.0774.
At 1.0805 subminuette wave iii would reach 100% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.0866 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1495 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i. It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.0674 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The alternate count sees that minuette wave (v) of minute wave i is still unfolding as an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Subminuette wave iii formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through 5, reaching exactly 200% the length of subminuette wave i.
Subminuette wave iv seems to be forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C. It’s very likely to reach at least 1.0780 before it’s complete.
This count expects the euro soon to continue moving towards the downside in subminuette wave v, to complete minuette wave (v), and therefore minute wave i. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0674.
At 1.0590 minuette wave (v) would reach 100% the combined lengths of minuette waves (i) and (iii), then at 1.0452 it would reach 161.8% the length of minuette wave (iii).
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.0897 as subminuette wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i.