EURUSD 29th October, 2015

Today the euro defied our expectation of having one final leg down, and instead opted for a slow but consistent movement towards the upside.

The relative speed and extent of this new rally strongly suggests that it’s part of a larger upwards correction. There are other technical indicators which support this view, and we’re going to discuss them in detail today.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1496
– Confirmation Point: 1.1096
– Upwards Target: 1.1125 – 1.1266
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th October, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.

Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).

Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.

Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 1 is complete.

Minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), and it’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the upside in minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1096.

At 1.1125 minute wave ii would retrace 38.2% of minute wave i, then at 1.1266 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1495 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

The main count sees that minute wave i of minor wave 3 formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Within it, minuette wave (iv) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing a bit over 23.6% of minuette wave (iii).

Within it, subminuette wave a formed a leading diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Subminuette wave b formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing almost 61.8% of subminuette wave a.

Subminuette wave c formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through v, ending exactly at the upper trend line of the channel drawn around the subdivisions of minuette wave (iv).

Minuette wave (v) formed a swift impulse, reaching a little more than 100% the length of minuette wave (i).

This count expects the euro to be now moving towards the upside in minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1096.

The MACD supports this count by showing a clear bullish divergence between the ends of minuette waves (iii) and (v).

At 1.1125 minute wave ii would retrace 38.2 % of minute wave i, then at 1.1226 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1495 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

Scroll to Top