As expected the euro moved strongly towards the downside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded them by 21 pips. It did this right after making a slight new high, a possibility which was also accounted for by the alternate count.
Now we have five waves towards the downside, fully clarifying and confirming the direction of the larger trend. However, a five-wave movement needs to be countered by a corrective movement in the opposite direction. And while we do expect to see another push downwards today to complete the impulsive pattern, it probably won’t be a long or strong one, and our efforts might be better focused on awaiting the inevitable upwards reversal.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1096
– Confirmation Point: 1.0897
– Upwards Target: 1.0850 – 1.0835
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th October, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 1 is complete.
Minor wave 2 formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y, retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minor waves 3, which must form an impulse labeled minute waves i through v. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0809.
At 1.0473 minor wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of minor wave 1, then at 0.9842 it would reach 261.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1495 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
The main count sees that minute wave i of minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (iii) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, almost reaching 261.8% the length of minuette wave (i).
Within it, subminuette wave iii formed a strong extension labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Subminuette wave v reached exactly 261.8% the length of subminuette wave i.
Minuette wave (iv) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing a bit over 23.6% of minuette wave (iii).
Within it, subminuette wave a formed a leading diagonal labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Subminuette wave b formed a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing almost 61.8% of subminuette wave a.
Subminuette wave c formed an impulse labeled micro waves 1 through v, ending exactly at the upper trend line of the channel drawn around the subdivisions of minuette wave (iv).
Minuette wave (v) is clearly forming an impulse.
This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside a little further in minuette wave (v) to complete minute wave i. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0897.
At 1.0850 minuette wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (iii), then at 1.0835 it would reach 161.8% the length of minuette wave (i).
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1096. Once price moves above this point, we’ll have full confirmation that minute wave i as a whole is complete and that minute wave ii has begun unfolding towards the upside.