As expected the euro spent the day moving slowly towards the upside, although it came short of reaching our targets.
The structure of this corrective movement seems complete, and its subdivisions exhibit perfect Fibonacci relationships, which is why our main count expects a resumption of the downtrend. However, corrections are tricky beasts, so the alternate count deals with the possibility of its continuation.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1068
– Confirmation Point: 1.1004
– Downwards Target: 1.0969 – 1.0907
– Wave number: Minuette (v)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal
Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1334 – 1.1004
– Confirmation Point: 1.1068
– Upwards Target: 1.1083 – 1.1141
– Wave number: Minuette (iv)
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th October, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.
Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).
Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A), and it’s most likely complete.
Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 1 is complete.
Minor wave 2 formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y, retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave 1.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minor waves 3, which must form an impulse labeled minute waves i through v. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0809.
At 1.0473 minor wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of minor wave 1, then at 0.9842 it would reach 261.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1495 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.
Main Hourly Wave Count
The main count sees that minute wave i of minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within it, minuette wave (ii) formed a double combination labeled subminuette waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C, retracing less than 38.2% of minuette wave (i).
Minuette wave (iii) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, almost reaching 261.8% the length of minuette wave (i).
Within it, subminuette wave iii formed a strong extension labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Subminuette wave v reached exactly 261.8% the length of subminuette wave i.
Minuette wave (iv) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.
Within it, subminuette wave b retraced 78.6% of subminuette wave a, and subminuette wave c reached 100% the length of subminuette wave a, so it’s most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to resume moving towards the downside in minuette wave (v) to complete minute wave i. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1004.
At 1.0969 minuette wave (v) would reach 61.8% the length of minuette wave (i), then at 1.0907 it would reach 100% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1068 as the second wave within minuette wave (v) may not move beyond the start of the first wave.
Alternate Hourly Wave Count
The alternate count sees that minuette wave (iv) is still unfolding into a larger zigzag that may continue for another 1-2 days. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1068.
At 1.1083 minuette wave (iv) would retrace 23.6% of minuette wave (iii), then at 1.1141 it would retrace 38.2% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1334 as minuette wave (iv) may not enter the price territory of minuette wave (i). It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.1004 as the second wave within subminuette wave c may not move beyond the start of the first wave.