Archives for October 2015

GBPUSD 29th October, 2015

30 October, 2015 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable unfolded as expected under the alternate count and first target was reached to the pip before reversing directions and moving towards the upside sharply. Today`s main count expects Cable to continue moving upwards within a second wave while the alternate count keeps in mind that Cable is within a third of a third wave and that corrections might prove to be shallow due to the nature of the impulse structure specially since the subdivisions within the recent upwards movement is not as clear as we would have preferred. As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. My sincere apologies for the delayed publishing of today`s analysis as I was having technical difficulties. Read More

EURUSD 29th October, 2015

29 October, 2015 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

Today the euro defied our expectation of having one final leg down, and instead opted for a slow but consistent movement towards the upside. The relative speed and extent of this new rally strongly suggests that it's part of a larger upwards correction. There are other technical indicators which support this view, and we're going to discuss them in detail today. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

EURUSD: Waiting for the Euro to Give In..

29 October, 2015 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

Last week we expected the euro to start falling again, which was exactly what happened. Price came crashing through our confirmation point, and then continued downwards to come 33 pips short of reaching our first target.

This price drop occurred in 5 waves, which strongly confirms our view that the downtrend is back in play. But as we know by now, every completed 5-wave sequence needs to be countered by a corrective move in the opposite direction, which is what we expect to see during this week.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1495
– Confirmation Point: 1.1096
– Upwards Target: 1.1125 – 1.1266
– Wave number: Minute ii
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag, Flat, or Combination

Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Big Picture

The bigger picture sees that the euro is moving towards the downside in cycle wave x, which is forming a double zigzag labeled primary waves W, X and Y.

Primary wave Y is forming a zigzag labeled intermediate waves (A), (B) and (C).

Intermediate wave (A) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 3 reached 261.8% the length of minor wave 1.

Minor wave 5 extended as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v, reaching 161.8% the length of both minor waves 1 and 3.

Intermediate wave (B) formed a double zigzag labeled minor waves W, X and Y, retracing a little less than 38.2% of intermediate wave (A).

Intermediate wave (C) is most likely forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 1 is complete.

Minor wave 2 retraced just over 61.8% of minor wave 1, and it’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to be moving towards the downside in minor waves 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1087.

At 1.0473 minor wave 3 would reach 161.8% the length of minor wave 1, then at 0.9842 it would reach 261.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1718 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Main Weekly Wave Count

The main count sees that minor wave 2 formed a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y, each forming a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Within it, minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), and it’s most likely complete.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the upside in minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1096.

At 1.1125 minute wave ii would retrace 38.2% of minute wave i, then at 1.1266 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1495 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

GBPUSD 28th October, 2015

29 October, 2015 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable unfolded downwards as expected and both first and second targets were reached and exceeded by 8 pips and Cable is very close to its lows at the time of publishing today`s analysis. The recent downwards movement suggests that a leading diagonal is complete and that a second wave is starting to unfold upwards correcting the downwards movement. The alternate count expects that a leading diagonal is incomplete and that it has more to offer towards the downside As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 28th October, 2015

28 October, 2015 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

As expected the euro moved strongly towards the downside, reached both of our targets, and exceeded them by 21 pips. It did this right after making a slight new high, a possibility which was also accounted for by the alternate count. Now we have five waves towards the downside, fully clarifying and confirming the direction of the larger trend. However, a five-wave movement needs to be countered by a corrective movement in the opposite direction. And while we do expect to see another push downwards today to complete the impulsive pattern, it probably won't be a long or strong one, and our efforts might be better focused on awaiting the inevitable upwards reversal. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD 27th October, 2015

28 October, 2015 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Cable unfolded downwards confirming the main count and -so far- Cable fell short of the first target by 2 pips. We are updating the main count according to the latest price action and the main count expects that Cable is forming a series of first and second waves and as a reminder this suggests that Cable should start a free fall within a third of a third wave. The alternate count on the other hand expects the downwards movement to pause and for a corrective structure to unfold in a sideways manner before resuming the downtrend. As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 27th October, 2015

27 October, 2015 by Tamer Elzein 1 Comment

Today the euro chose to follow the path that was laid down by the alternate count, as it continued to move slowly and aimlessly towards the upside, coming short of reaching our first target for the alternate count by 4 pips. This leaves us essentially in the exact same position we were yesterday. The upwards corrective structure looks complete, its initial target was almost reached, and momentum seems to be shifting, all indications of an impending reversal. We just need to wait for the price action itself to confirm it. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

GBPUSD: Strapping Seat Belts !!

27 October, 2015 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

Continuing with the metaphor I have been using lately regarding the bearish train and I admit I have been abusing that metaphor and I will try to stop using it -tongue in cheek-. We continue this week expecting that the bearish train is about to gain momentum.

It is worth noting that Cable unfolded downwards as the alternate count expected and that both targets were reached and exceeded.

This week`s main count expects Cable to immediately free fall within an impulse as the main count expects that Cable is forming a series of first and second waves. The alternate count expects Cable to unfold upwards to complete a second wave correction.

As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.

Main Count

– Invalidation Point: 1.5420
– Confirmation Point: 1.5305
– Downwards Targets: 1.5281 — 1.5269 — 1.5195
– Wave number: 3 red
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Alternate Count

– Invalidation Points: 1.5107 — 1.5932
– Confirmation Point: 1.5510
– Upwards Targets: 1.5555 — 1.5619
– Wave number: ii orange
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 26th October, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave C maroon is unfolding downwards and within it intermediate waves (1) and (2) black might be complete and that intermediate wave (3) black has started unfolding towards the downside.

Within intermediate wave (3) black, it is expected that waves i and ii pink are complete and wave iii pink is underway.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave (y) green unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Wave c orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple with wave 1 purple unfolding as a leading diagonal labeled waves (1) through (5) aqua.

This count expects that wave iii pink is underway with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green is underway.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave (ii) green unfolded as unfolding as a zigzag labeled waves a, b and c orange.

Within wave (iii) green it is likely that waves i and ii orange are complete and wave iii orange is at its early stages.

Wave i orange unfolded as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Wave ii orange unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves A, B and C purple.

Within wave iii orange it is likely that waves 1 and 2 purple are complete and that wave 3 purple is starting to extend downwards.

Within wave 3 purple it is expected that waves (1) and (2) aqua are complete and wave (3) aqua is underway with waves 1 and 2 red complete and wave 3 red is unfolding downwards.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5305.

At 1.5281 wave (3) aqua would reach equality with wave (1) aqua. At 1.5269 wave 3 red would reach equality with wave 1 red and the final target is at 1.5195 wave (3) aqua would reach 1.618 of wave (1) aqua.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5420 as wave 2 red may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 red and it should be noted that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave 2 red once we have confirmation on the hourly chart that wave 3 red is underway.

Alternate Wave Count

N.B.: This count is presented on a daily chart for clarification purposes.

This count has lower probabilities and the alternate count presented on today`s analysis here has higher probabilities as this count does not provide the best fit and it ignores important Elliott wave guidelines.

We decide to mention this count since many of our members requested an analysis of this count.

This count expects that wave (3) black has started unfolding downwards and within it, wave 1 blue is complete and wave 2 blue is unfolding towards the upside.

Wave 1 blue unfolded as an expanding leading diagonal labeled waves i through v pink.

Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.

Wave iv pink unfolded as a zigzag labeled waves (a), (b) and (c) green.

Within wave 2 blue, this count expects that waves a and b pink are complete and that wave c pink is unfolding towards the upside.

The problem with this count is within the structure of wave 1 blue as this count suggests a leading diagonal. Since wave iii pink is longer than wave i pink, then this structure is expected to be an expanding leading diagonal. So what do we know about expanding leading diagonal besides being a very rare formation ?

1- In expanding leading diagonals, wave four is expected to be longer than wave two.
2- Wave one is expected to be shorter than wave three. Wave three is expected to be shorter than wave five.
3- The line connecting waves one and three and the line connecting waves two and four should be diverging instead of the convergence we typically see in contracting leading diagonals.

This expanding leading diagonal only fulfills the first point and neglects the second and third points, therefore this count has lower probabilities.

This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.5510.

At 1.5555 wave c pink would reach 0.618 of wave a pink and at 1.5619 wave 2 blue would reach 0.618 of wave 1 blue.

This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5932 as wave 2 blue may not retrace more than 100 % of wave 1 blue and as well this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5107 as wave b pink may not retrace more than 100 % of wave a pink and it should be noted that the invalidation point would be moved to the end of wave b pink once we have confirmation on the daily chart that wave c pink is underway.

GBPUSD 26th October, 2015

27 October, 2015 by Nady Laymoud Leave a Comment

On Monday`s session, Cable unfolded in a tight range leaving both main and alternate counts valid. We are updating both counts according to the latest price action and the main count expects that Cable is forming a series of first and second waves which in turn suggests that Cable should start a free fall within a third of a third wave. The alternate count on the other hand expects a corrective structure to be incomplete and that Cable has more to offer towards the upside. As always we will wait for either counts confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count. Read More

EURUSD 26th October, 2015

26 October, 2015 by Tamer Elzein Leave a Comment

As expected the euro spent the day moving slowly towards the upside, although it came short of reaching our targets. The structure of this corrective movement seems complete, and its subdivisions exhibit perfect Fibonacci relationships, which is why our main count expects a resumption of the downtrend. However, corrections are tricky beasts, so the alternate count deals with the possibility of its continuation. We're updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points. Read More

Archives for October 2015

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