Archives for September 2015
In our previous analysis “GBPUSD: A Conservative Approach”. Cable started the week by unfolding downwards reaching the first target and fall short of the second target by 3 pips before reversing directions towards the upside proving that wave (ii) green had more to offer towards the upside.
ٍSome of our subscribers asked for the mid and long term views for Cable, therefore, this week we decided to take the chance of the weekly analysis and view both long and mid terms perspective for Cable.
As always we will wait for either count`s confirmation point to be reached to determine the highly probable count.
– Invalidation Points: 1.5820
– Confirmation Point: 1.5163
– Downwards Targets: 1.4992 — 1.4853
– Wave number: (iii) green
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 21st September, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Wave Count
This count expects that primary wave C maroon is unfolding downwards and within it intermediate waves (1) and (2) black might be complete and that intermediate wave (3) black has started unfolding towards the downside.
Intermediate wave (1) black unfolded as an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5 blue with wave minor wave 3 blue unfolding as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v pink.
Within intermediate wave (3) black, it is expected that waves i and ii pink are complete and wave iii pink is underway.
Wave i pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.
Wave ii pink unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves (w), (x) and (y) green.
This count expects that wave iii pink is at its early stages with waves (i) and (ii) green complete and wave (iii) green has started unfolding downwards.
This count would be initially confirmed by movement below 1.5163.
At 1.4992 wave iii pink will reach 1.382 of wave i pink which is the next logical target and at 1.4853 wave iii pink will reach 1.618 of wave i pink.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5820 as within wave iii pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave and it should be noted that the invalidation point will be moved to the end of wave (ii) green once we have confirmation on the daily chart that wave (iii) green is underway.
Alternate Wave Count
The only difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions within intermediate wave (2) black as this count expects that wave (2) black has more to offer towards the upside.
Within wave (2) black, it is expected that minor waves A and B blue are complete and that minor wave C blue is unfolding towards the upside.
Wave B blue unfolded as a double combination labeled minute waves w, x and y pink.
This count would be confirmed by movement above 1.5932.
At 1.6192 wave (2) black will reach 0.618 of wave (1) black and at 1.6420 wave C blue will reach equality with wave A blue.
This count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7193 as wave (2) black may not retrace more than 100 % of wave (1) black. As well, this count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5163 as within wave C blue no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.
Over the past week, the euro moved a bit further towards the upside, but all of the rally since the 1.1087 low has been in 3 waves, indicating that it’s still only a correction.
Both the candlestick pattern and the Fibonacci retracement relationship are now in a perfect position for a trend reversal, which is exactly what we suggested last week.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Weekly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1718
– Confirmation Point: 1.1087
– Downwards Target: 1.0829 – 1.0438
– Wave number: Minor 3
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Weekly Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving towards the downside in primary wave C, which is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).
Intermediate wave (4) formed a double combination labeled minor waves W, X and Y.
Within it, minor wave W formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Minor wave X formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y, retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave w.
Minor wave Y also formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave b formed a running flat labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing almost 38.2% of minute wave a.
Minute wave c reached twice the length of minute wave a, and touched the upper trend line of the channel drawn around minor waves W, X and Y, completing intermediate wave (4).
Intermediate wave (5) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Within it, minor wave 1 is complete.
Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing almost 61.8% of minor wave 1.
This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in minor wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1087.
At 1.0829 minor wave 3 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0438 it would reach 161.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1718 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. And once price reaches our confirmation point, we may lower the invalidation point to the end of minor wave 2, which currently stands at 1.1460.