EURUSD 29th September, 2015

As expected the euro moved a little bit towards the downside and is now rebounding upwards. The pattern still looks fairly corrective, so everything seems to be unfolding nicely.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1460 – 1.1116
– Confirmation Point: 1.1281
– Upwards Target: 1.1296 – 1.1307
– Wave number: Minute ii
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Flat or Combination

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 29th September, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving towards the downside in primary wave C, which is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (4) formed a double combination labeled minor waves W, X and Y.

Within it, minor wave W formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave X formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y, retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave w.

Minor wave Y also formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Within it, minute wave b formed a running flat labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing almost 38.2% of minute wave a.

Minute wave c reached twice the length of minute wave a, and touched the upper trend line of the channel drawn around minor waves W, X and Y, completing intermediate wave (4).

Intermediate wave (5) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 1 is complete.

Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing almost 61.8% of minor wave 1.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in minor wave 3, which must unfold as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1087.

At 1.0829 minor wave 3 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0438 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1460 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), and minute wave ii is still unfolding, either as a flat labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), or as a double zigzag labeled minuette waves (w), (x) and (y). We’ll assume for now that it’s a flat.

Within it, minuette waves (a) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Minuette wave (b) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing the necessary 90% of minuette wave (a) and fulfilling the requirement of a flat correction.

Minuette wave (c) seems to be forming an irregularly-shaped ending diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v, each forming a zigzag labeled micro waves A, B and C.

Within it, subminuette waves i through iii are complete, and it’s highly likely that subminuette wave iv is complete as well.

This count expects the euro to continue moving a little bit further towards the upside in subminuette waves v, to complete minuette wave (c), and thereby minute wave ii. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1281.

At 1.1296 minuette wave (c) would reach the end of minuette wave (a), then at 1.1307 it would reach 100% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1460 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

It’s also invalidated by movement below 1.1116, which also serves as our early confirmation that minute wave ii is complete and minute wave iii has started to unfold towards the downside.

4 thoughts on “EURUSD 29th September, 2015”

  1. Hi Tamer,
    so comfortable when there is no alternate count :-))) Just wait like a cat waiting for “his” mouse, out of just one hole :-))
    Thx always for your great analysis!!!
    Rgds
    Fran

    1. Hey Fran,

      Yes, absolutely. In fact, this is the count I’m going to publish tonight 🙂 I just wish price would move below 1.1116 before I publish, it would be a nice confirmation.

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