EURUSD 24th September, 2015

As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached our first target at 1.1241 and exceeded it by 55 pips, which is 29 pips short of our second target at 1.1325.

With all the technical indications we’ll discuss in a moment, it seems much more likely that this upwards correction has ended and that the trend should revert back to its downwards direction. But we’re still keeping an eye on the alternate count, just in case the market still hasn’t fully had enough on the upside.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1296
– Confirmation Point: –
– Downwards Target: 1.1105
– Wave number: Minuette (i)
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Leading Diagonal

Hourly Alternate Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1460
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upwards Target: 1.1241 – 1.1325
– Wave number: Minute ii
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Flat or Combination

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 24th September, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving towards the downside in primary wave C, which is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (4) formed a double combination labeled minor waves W, X and Y.

Within it, minor wave W formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave X formed a double zigzag labeled minute waves w, x and y, retracing a bit over 61.8% of minor wave w.

Minor wave Y also formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Within it, minute wave b formed a running flat labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing almost 38.2% of minute wave a.

Minute wave c reached twice the length of minute wave a, and touched the upper trend line of the channel drawn around minor waves W, X and Y, completing intermediate wave (4).

Intermediate wave (5) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Within it, minor wave 1 is complete.

Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, retracing almost 61.8% of minor wave 1.

This count expects the euro to start moving towards the downside in minor wave 3, which must unfold as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.1087.

At 1.0829 minor wave 3 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0438 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1460 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minuette wave (i) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minuette wave (ii) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c, retracing less than 38.2% of minuette wave (i).

Minuette wave (iii) reached only 78.6% the length of minuette wave (i), while minuette wave (v) reached slightly over 61.8% the length of minuette wave (iii), making the entire minute wave i a somewhat atypical impulse.

Minute wave ii formed a zigzag labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), retracing slightly more than 50% of minute wave i.

Within it, minuette wave (a) formed a leading diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minuette wave (b) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Minuette wave (c) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, reaching more than 100% the length of minuette wave (a).

This count expects the euro to resume moving towards the downside in minute wave iii, which must form an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), where minuette wave (i) may form either an impulse or a leading diagonal labeled subminuette waves i through v.

The MACD indicator somewhat supports this count by showing a strong bearish reversal.

It’s still very early in the development of this new wave to calculate accurate short-term targets. But if this count is correct, then price should easily reach 1.1105 either today or some time early next week.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1296 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minute wave ii is still unfolding, either as a flat labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c), or as a double zigzag labeled minuette waves (w), (x) and (y).

Within it, minuette waves (a) or (w) formed a zigzag labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

Minuette wave (b) or (x) can form in any corrective pattern, and it may even make a new low if it’s part of an expanded flat or a double combination.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the upside in minuette wave (c) or (y) to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.1241 minute wave ii would retrace 38.2% of minute wave i (making it a running flat if it ends there), then at 1.1325 it would retrace 61.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1460 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

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