GBPUSD 24th June, 2015

Cable unfolded as expected and -so far- Cable fell short of the specified target by 17 pips.

Today`s main count expects downwards movement to prove limited while the hourly alternate count expects that GBPUSD`s downwards consolidation is complete and that GBPUSD is about to reverse directions and move upwards.

As always we should pay close attention to both count`s confirmation points as confirmation points determine the highly probable count.

P.S.: It is worth noting that both main and alternate hourly counts are presented on 2-hours chart for clarification purposes.

Main Hourly Count

– Invalidation Points: 1.5911 — 1.5375
– Confirmation Point: 1.5667
– Downwards Target: 1.5650
– Wave number: iv pink
– Wave structure: Corrective
– Wave pattern: Zigzag

Alternate Hourly Count

– Invalidation Points: 1.5667
– Confirmation Point: 1.5932
– Upwards Targets: 1.5950 — 1.6037 — 1.6193
– Wave number: v pink
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse/Ending diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the GBPUSD for 24th June, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

This count expects that primary wave B maroon is complete and that primary wave C maroon is unfolding towards the downside.

Within wave C maroon intermediate wave (1) black is complete as an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5 blue and intermediate wave (2) black is unfolding towards the upside.

wave 2 blue unfolded as a zigzag structure labeled minute waves a, b and c pink.

Wave 3 blue unfolded as an impulse labeled minute waves i through v pink.

Wave 4 blue unfolded as a triangle labeled minute waves a through e pink.

This count expects that within intermediate wave (2) black, waves A and B blue are complete and wave C blue is underway.

Wave B blue unfolded as a double zigzag labeled waves w, x and y pink.

Within wave C blue it is expected that waves i through iii pink are complete and wave iv pink is underway. After the completion of wave iv pink, Cable is expected to unfold towards the upside to complete wave v pink and therefore wave C blue and ultimately wave (2) black.

As far as MACD study goes, recent upwards movement failed to register higher highs on MACD, that behavior is expected from a C wave and even though a bearish divergence is clear on the daily chart, it is less likely that it is complete. For the time being, this bearish divergence is considered “in progress” and we should expect another bearish divergence between the ends of waves iii and v pink.

It would be confirmed that wave v pink is underway by movement above 1.5932.

At 1.5945 wave C blue will reach 0.618 of wave A blue and at 1.6193 wave (2) black will reach 0.618 of wave (1) black.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5375 as wave iv pink may not enter the price territory of wave i pink. As well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.7193 as wave (2) black might not retrace more than 100 % of wave (1) black.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count expects that within wave C blue, it is expected that waves i through iii pink are complete and wave iv pink is unfolding towards the downside.

Wave i pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave iii pink unfolded as an impulse labeled waves (i) through (v) green.

Wave (i) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange.

Wave (iii) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange and wave iv orange unfolded as a triangle labeled waves A through E purple.

Wave (v) green unfolded as an impulse labeled waves i through v orange with wave iii orange unfolding as an impulse labeled waves 1 through 5 purple.

Within wave iv pink, it is expected that waves (a) and (b) green are complete and the structure within wave (c) green is highly likely incomplete and the main count expects that wave (c) green has more to offer towards the downside.

This count would be confirmed by movement below 1.5667.

At 1.5650 wave iv pink will reach 0.382 of wave iii pink.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5375 as wave iv pink may not enter the price territory of wave i pink and as well this count would be invalidated by movement above 1.5911 as within wave (c) green no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

Alternate Hourly Wave Count

The difference between both main and alternate counts is within the subdivisions of wave iv pink. This count expects that wave iv pink is complete and that wave v pink is unfolding towards the upside.

This count expects that wave iv pink unfolded as a triple zigzag labeled waves (w), (x), (y), (x) and (z) green. Triple zigzags are very rare formations and this is why this count is considered an alternate count.

As far as MACD study goes, MACD created a hidden bullish divergence as MACD registered new lows while price action failed to follow suit as it failed to make new lows. Paying close attention to the recent downwards movement we notice that MACD failed to register lower lows to accompany the recent price low, this behavior suggests that downwards movement is running out of steam and that upwards movement -even if just corrective- is around the corner.

Our confidence will start to increase in this count by movement above the end of wave first wave (x) green at 1.5910 and the final confirmation point which will boost confidence in this count is at 1.5932.

At 1.5950 wave v pink will reach 0.382 of wave iii pink and at 1.6037 wave v pink will reach 50 % of wave iii pink and the final target is at 1.6193 as at that level wave (2) black will reach 0.618 of wave (1) black. It is worth mentioning that we will be able to provide more accurate target for the completion of wave v pink once wave v pink starts unfolding towards the upside.

This count would be invalidated by movement below 1.5667 as within wave v pink no second wave may retrace more than 100 % of its first wave.

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