EURUSD 26th June, 2015

As expected the euro continued moving towards the downside, easily reached both of our targets, and has now exceeded them by 125 pips.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.1130
– Confirmation Point: 1.0954
– Downwards Target: 1.0954 – 1.0902
– Wave number: Subminuette v
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse or Ending Diagonal

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 26th June, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is still moving towards the downside in primary wave C, which is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (3) formed an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5, reaching exactly 161.8% the length of intermediate wave (1).

Intermediate wave (4) formed a flat labeled minor waves A, B and C, retracing just over 38.2% of intermediate wave (3).

Intermediate wave (5) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 is complete.

Minor wave 2 formed a very deep zigzag labeled as minute waves a, b and c.

This count expects the euro to continue moving towards the downside in minor wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0819.

At 1.0788 minor wave 3 would reach 100% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.0388 it would reach 161.8% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1467 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minute wave i of minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).

Minuette wave (iii) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minuette wave (iv) formed a contracting triangle labeled subminuette waves a through e, retracing midway between 23.6% and 38.2% of minuette wave (iii).

Minuette wave (v) is forming a fairly strong impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Within it, subminuette wave ii retraced 50% of subminuette wave i, and subminuette wave iii reached 13 pips short of 261.8% the length of subminuette wave i.

This count expects price to move sideways to slightly upwards for a very brief period in subminuette wave iv, before resuming its movement towards the downside in subminuette wave v to complete minuette wave (v) of minute wave i. This will be confirmed by movement below 1.0954.

At 1.0954 subminuette wave v would reach the low of subminuette wave iii, then at 1.0902 it would reach 61.8% of its length. These are approximate targets, assuming that subminuette wave iv ends at the typical 38.2% retracement level.

It’s also possible (but slightly less likely) that the euro is actually forming a larger-degree extension, putting us in the middle of a third wave within a third wave. If this is the case, the euro should witness a very strong drop at least to 1.0800, and possibly quite a bit lower. At this point, however, we have no way of confirming this possibility until the price action itself gives a clear indication.

This wave count is invalidated by movement above 1.1130 as subminuette wave iv of this impulse may not enter the price territory of subminuette wave i.

Alternate Daily Wave Count

The alternate daily count tracks the possibility that the euro is starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (1) is forming an impulse labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 2 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave 3 is forming an impulse labeled minute waves i through v.

Minute wave i formed an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), with minuette wave (iii) forming an extension labeled subminuette waves i through v.

Minute wave ii is forming a flat correction labeled minuette waves (a), (b) and (c).

Both minuette waves (a) and (b) formed zigzags labeled subminuette waves a, b and c.

This count expects the euro to move towards the downside in minuette wave (c) to complete minute wave ii.

At 1.0882 minute wave ii would retrace 61.8% of minute wave i, then at 1.0722 it would retrace 78.6% of its length.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0520 as minute wave ii may not move beyond the start of minute wave i.

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