As expected the euro moved towards the upside, reached our confirmation point at 1.0929, and then continued its upwards rise.
But even though the rally seems to have substance and is supported by momentum, and while it fits our big picture view, we’re still not fully convinced that a continuation of the uptrend is taking place. We’d like to see a completed 5-wave movement and a break above 1.1062 before we have full confidence of this count.
If price makes a new low, we’re going to have to seriously reconsider our entire view. With a complete 5-wave moment towards the downside, it would be logical to assume that the much larger downtrend is back in effect. But let’s not jump to conclusions too early, and wait until enough evidence presents itself for this possibility.
We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.
Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0819
– Confirmation Point: –
– Upward Target: 1.1016 – 1.1108
– Wave number: Subminuette iii
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse
Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 28th May, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.
Main Daily Wave Count
The bigger picture sees that the euro is starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).
Intermediate wave (1) is forming a leading diagonal labeled minor waves 1 through 5.
Minor wave 1 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Minor wave 2 is formed another zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, and it’s most likely complete.
This count expects the euro to be resume moving towards the upside in minor wave 3. This will be confirmed by movement above 1.1209.
At 1.1440 minor wave 3 would reach 61.8% the length of minor wave 1, then at 1.1609 it would reach 78.6% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0462 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. Once price reaches our confirmation point, we may raise the invalidation point to the end of minor wave 2, which currently stands at 1.0819.
Main Hourly Wave Count
This count sees that minor wave 2 is forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Minute wave b formed a double combination labeled minuette waves (w), (x) and (y), retracing 38.2% of minute wave a.
Minute wave c formed an impulse, labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), coming only 15 pips short of reaching 100% the length of minute wave a.
Within it, minuette wave (iii) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, and within that subminuette wave iii formed an extension labeled micro waves 1 through 5.
Minor wave 3 is forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.
Within it, minute wave a is forming an impulse labeled minuette waves (i) through (v).
Within in, minuette wave (i) is most likely forming an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v.
Subminuette wave ii formed an expanded flat labeled micro waves A, B and C.
This count expects the euro to be moving towards the upside in subminuette wave iii.
At 1.1016 subminuette wave iii would reach 161.8% the length of subminuette wave i, then at 1.1108 it would reach 261.8% of its length.
This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0819 as subminuette wave ii may not move beyond the start of subminuette wave i.