EURUSD 27th May, 2015

Another repeat of the scenario that’s been taking place over the past few days: Price continued its somewhat sloppy decline, right as momentum kept slowly rising.

While it’s now more likely that EURUSD has been forming an impulse (rather than a diagonal), we still think that the decline is very close to exhaustion and that downwards potential is fairly limited.

We’re updating our counts to reflect the most recent price action and to present tighter targets and invalidation points.

Hourly Main Count
– Invalidation Point: 1.0462
– Confirmation Point: 1.0929
– Upward Target: 1.1209 – 1.1467
– Wave number: Minute c
– Wave structure: Motive
– Wave pattern: Impulse

Elliott Wave chart analysis for the EURUSD for 27th May, 2015. Please click on the charts below to enlarge.

Main Daily Wave Count

The bigger picture sees that the euro is starting a significant uptrend in cycle wave y, which may be unfolding as a zigzag labeled primary waves A, B and C, where primary wave A is forming an impulse labeled intermediate waves (1) through (5).

Intermediate wave (1) is forming a leading diagonal labeled minor waves 1 through 5.

Minor wave 1 formed a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minor wave 2 is forming another zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c, and it’s very near completion.

This count expects the euro soon to be resume moving towards the upside in minor wave 3.

We’ll have to wait for confirmation that minor wave 2 has ended before we can calculate targets for minor wave 3. But we have a logical target at 1.1467, as minor wave 3 will have to exceed the end of minor wave 1.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0462 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1.

Main Hourly Wave Count

This count sees that minor wave 2 is forming a zigzag labeled minute waves a, b and c.

Minute wave b formed a double combination labeled minuette waves (w), (x) and (y), retracing 38.2% of minute wave a.

Minute wave c is forming an impulse, labeled minuette waves (i) through (v), coming only 15 pips short of reaching 100% the length of minute wave a.

Within it, minuette wave (iii) formed an impulse labeled subminuette waves i through v, and within that subminuette wave iii formed an extension labeled micro waves 1 through 5.

Overall, minor wave 2 so far retraced 27 pips more than 61.8% of minor wave 1, so it’s most likely very near completion.

This count expects the euro soon to resume moving towards the upside in minor wave 3. This will be initially confirmed by movement above 1.0929.

We’ll have to wait for confirmation that minor wave 2 has ended before we can calculate targets for minor wave 3. But we have two logical targets: at 1.1209, which is the start of minute wave c, and at 1.1467, as minor wave 3 will have to exceed the end of minor wave 1.

This wave count is invalidated by movement below 1.0462 as minor wave 2 may not move beyond the start of minor wave 1. Once price reaches both of our confirmation point, we may raise the invalidation point to the end of minor wave 2, which currently stands at 1.0819.

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